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Premier League

Referee: A Madley

Man City

U S S S U

1–2

Full-time

Aston Villa

T S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,5

Scored

2,2

2,3

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 56%

62%

49%

Points per game

2,1

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

62%

51%

Both score Ø 53%

49%

57%

Average goals

2,9

2,8

Scored

2,1

1,5

Conceded

0,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,34 xG 1,77

53% Possession 47%

16 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 4

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 2. · Aston Villa 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	37	25	7	5	+43	+35.3	82
2	Man City	37	23	9	5	+43	+27.5	78
3	Man United	37	19	11	7	+16	+15.9	68
4	Aston Villa	37	18	8	11	+6	-6.1	62
5	Liverpool	37	17	8	12	+10	+11.8	59
6	Bournemouth	37	13	17	7	+4	+6.1	56
7	Brighton	37	14	11	12	+9	+9.5	53
8	Chelsea	37	14	10	13	+7	+14.7	52
9	Brentford	37	14	10	13	+3	+7.3	52
10	Sunderland	37	13	12	12	-7	-16.6	51
11	Newcastle	37	14	7	16	+0	+7.3	49
12	Everton	37	13	10	14	-2	-9.1	49
13	Fulham	37	14	7	16	-6	-6.5	49
14	Leeds	37	11	14	12	-4	-0.4	47
15	Crystal Palace	37	11	12	14	-9	+7.8	45
16	Nott'm Forest	37	11	10	16	-3	-11.7	43
17	Tottenham	37	9	11	17	-10	-12.0	38
18	West Ham	37	9	9	19	-22	-14.7	36
19	Burnley	37	4	9	24	-37	-41.7	21
20	Wolves	37	3	10	24	-41	-24.3	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	19	15	2	2	+30	+22.0	47
2	Man City	18	14	3	1	+32	+17.8	45
3	Man United	19	13	3	3	+15	+16.9	42
4	Aston Villa	19	12	2	5	+10	+1.6	38
5	Liverpool	18	10	5	3	+14	+9.3	35
6	Brighton	18	9	6	3	+13	+8.5	33
7	Brentford	19	8	8	3	+12	+13.2	32
8	Leeds	19	9	5	5	+8	+7.3	32
9	Fulham	18	10	2	6	+8	+2.7	32
10	Newcastle	19	10	2	7	+6	+9.1	32
11	Bournemouth	19	7	10	2	+9	+14.4	31
12	Sunderland	18	8	6	4	+4	-3.5	30
13	Chelsea	19	7	5	7	+1	+8.0	26
14	Everton	19	6	5	8	-1	-0.0	23
15	Crystal Palace	18	4	9	5	-3	+10.4	21
16	Nott'm Forest	18	4	7	7	-3	+1.6	19
17	West Ham	18	5	4	9	-6	-1.8	19
18	Wolves	19	3	5	11	-15	-7.9	14
19	Tottenham	18	2	6	10	-10	-4.3	12
20	Burnley	18	2	6	10	-11	-16.5	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	18	10	5	3	+13	+13.3	35
2	Man City	19	9	6	4	+11	+9.7	33
3	Chelsea	18	7	5	6	+6	+6.7	26
4	Man United	18	6	8	4	+1	-1.0	26
5	Tottenham	19	7	5	7	+0	-7.7	26
6	Everton	18	7	5	6	-1	-9.0	26
7	Bournemouth	18	6	7	5	-5	-8.3	25
8	Nott'm Forest	19	7	3	9	+0	-13.3	24
9	Liverpool	19	7	3	9	-4	+2.5	24
10	Aston Villa	18	6	6	6	-4	-7.8	24
11	Crystal Palace	19	7	3	9	-6	-2.6	24
12	Sunderland	19	5	6	8	-11	-13.2	21
13	Brighton	19	5	5	9	-4	+0.9	20
14	Brentford	18	6	2	10	-9	-5.8	20
15	Newcastle	18	4	5	9	-6	-1.9	17
16	Fulham	19	4	5	10	-14	-9.2	17
17	West Ham	19	4	5	10	-16	-12.9	17
18	Leeds	18	2	9	7	-12	-7.7	15
19	Burnley	19	2	3	14	-26	-25.2	9
20	Wolves	18	0	5	13	-26	-16.4	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.