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Premier League

Referee: C Kavanagh

Aston Villa

T T T S U

4–2

Full-time

Liverpool

T S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,3

3,0

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 47%

47%

Points per game

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

50%

61%

Both score Ø 62%

56%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,4

1,7

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,91 xG 1,55

45% Possession 55%

14 Shots 16

9 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 9

2 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 5. · Liverpool 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	36	24	7	5	+42	+34.2	79
2	Man City	36	23	8	5	+43	+28.3	77
3	Man United	36	18	11	7	+15	+13.2	65
4	Liverpool	36	17	8	11	+12	+12.2	59
5	Aston Villa	36	17	8	11	+4	-6.5	59
6	Bournemouth	36	13	16	7	+4	+5.3	55
7	Brighton	36	14	11	11	+10	+6.8	53
8	Brentford	36	14	9	13	+3	+7.3	51
9	Chelsea	36	13	10	13	+6	+15.8	49
10	Everton	36	13	10	13	+0	-9.3	49
11	Fulham	36	14	6	16	-6	-6.7	48
12	Sunderland	36	12	12	12	-9	-16.4	48
13	Newcastle	36	13	7	16	-2	+6.5	46
14	Leeds	36	10	14	12	-5	+2.3	44
15	Crystal Palace	36	11	11	14	-9	+7.8	44
16	Nott'm Forest	36	11	10	15	-2	-9.0	43
17	Tottenham	36	9	11	16	-9	-13.1	38
18	West Ham	36	9	9	18	-20	-14.0	36
19	Burnley	36	4	9	23	-36	-40.6	21
20	Wolves	36	3	9	24	-41	-24.1	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	18	14	3	1	+32	+17.8	45
2	Arsenal	18	14	2	2	+29	+20.9	44
3	Man United	18	12	3	3	+14	+14.2	39
4	Liverpool	18	10	5	3	+14	+9.3	35
5	Aston Villa	18	11	2	5	+8	+1.3	35
6	Brighton	18	9	6	3	+13	+8.5	33
7	Fulham	18	10	2	6	+8	+2.7	32
8	Brentford	18	8	7	3	+12	+13.2	31
9	Bournemouth	18	7	9	2	+9	+13.6	30
10	Sunderland	18	8	6	4	+4	-3.5	30
11	Leeds	18	8	5	5	+7	+10.0	29
12	Newcastle	18	9	2	7	+4	+8.3	29
13	Everton	18	6	5	7	+1	-0.3	23
14	Chelsea	18	6	5	7	+0	+9.1	23
15	Crystal Palace	18	4	9	5	-3	+10.4	21
16	Nott'm Forest	18	4	7	7	-3	+1.6	19
17	West Ham	18	5	4	9	-6	-1.8	19
18	Wolves	18	3	4	11	-15	-7.7	13
19	Tottenham	18	2	6	10	-10	-4.3	12
20	Burnley	18	2	6	10	-11	-16.5	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	18	10	5	3	+13	+13.3	35
2	Man City	18	9	5	4	+11	+10.5	32
3	Chelsea	18	7	5	6	+6	+6.7	26
4	Man United	18	6	8	4	+1	-1.0	26
5	Tottenham	18	7	5	6	+1	-8.8	26
6	Everton	18	7	5	6	-1	-9.0	26
7	Bournemouth	18	6	7	5	-5	-8.3	25
8	Nott'm Forest	18	7	3	8	+1	-10.6	24
9	Liverpool	18	7	3	8	-2	+2.8	24
10	Aston Villa	18	6	6	6	-4	-7.8	24
11	Crystal Palace	18	7	2	9	-6	-2.6	23
12	Brighton	18	5	5	8	-3	-1.7	20
13	Brentford	18	6	2	10	-9	-5.8	20
14	Sunderland	18	4	6	8	-13	-12.9	18
15	Newcastle	18	4	5	9	-6	-1.9	17
16	West Ham	18	4	5	9	-14	-12.1	17
17	Fulham	18	4	4	10	-14	-9.4	16
18	Leeds	18	2	9	7	-12	-7.7	15
19	Burnley	18	2	3	13	-25	-24.1	9
20	Wolves	18	0	5	13	-26	-16.4	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.