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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Aston Villa

S S T S T

2–2

Full-time

Brighton

T U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,2

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 39%

44%

33%

Points per game

1,6

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

72%

67%

Both score Ø 73%

67%

78%

Average goals

3,1

2,9

Scored

1,4

1,5

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,78 xG 1,13

60% Possession 40%

20 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 4

9 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

12 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 9. · Brighton 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	14	3	1	+28	+25.3	45
2	Nott'm Forest	19	11	4	4	+7	+3.5	37
3	Arsenal	18	10	6	2	+19	+16.0	36
4	Chelsea	18	10	5	3	+17	+10.7	35
5	Man City	19	9	4	6	+6	+7.1	31
6	Bournemouth	19	8	6	5	+6	+13.7	30
7	Newcastle	18	8	5	5	+9	+8.8	29
8	Fulham	19	7	8	4	+3	+1.8	29
9	Aston Villa	18	8	4	6	-3	+4.9	28
10	Brighton	18	6	8	4	+1	-2.3	26
11	Tottenham	19	7	3	9	+13	+3.8	24
12	Brentford	18	7	3	8	+0	-3.0	24
13	West Ham	19	6	5	8	-12	-6.6	23
14	Man United	18	6	4	8	-3	+0.3	22
15	Crystal Palace	19	4	8	7	-7	-1.4	20
16	Everton	18	3	8	7	-9	-7.2	17
17	Wolves	19	4	4	11	-11	-11.4	16
18	Leicester	19	3	5	11	-20	-19.7	14
19	Ipswich	18	2	6	10	-17	-21.2	12
20	Southampton	19	1	3	15	-27	-23.0	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	9	7	1	1	+12	+11.2	22
2	Brentford	9	7	1	1	+10	+6.8	22
3	Arsenal	9	6	3	0	+12	+13.2	21
4	Aston Villa	9	5	3	1	+5	+10.1	18
5	Newcastle	9	5	2	2	+7	+7.0	17
6	Man City	9	5	2	2	+4	+9.0	17
7	Nott'm Forest	9	5	2	2	+4	+4.3	17
8	Fulham	10	4	4	2	+1	+0.4	16
9	Chelsea	9	4	3	2	+4	+6.9	15
10	Bournemouth	9	4	3	2	+4	+8.5	15
11	Tottenham	10	4	2	4	+6	+2.2	14
12	Brighton	9	3	5	1	+1	+1.6	14
13	Man United	9	4	1	4	-1	+1.3	13
14	West Ham	10	3	2	5	-9	-4.7	11
15	Everton	9	2	4	3	-1	-3.5	10
16	Crystal Palace	10	2	4	4	-7	+1.0	10
17	Leicester	10	2	3	5	-6	-7.9	9
18	Wolves	9	2	1	6	-6	-5.3	7
19	Ipswich	9	0	4	5	-10	-7.3	4
20	Southampton	9	1	1	7	-15	-12.7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	9	7	2	0	+16	+14.1	23
2	Chelsea	9	6	2	1	+13	+3.8	20
3	Nott'm Forest	10	6	2	2	+3	-0.8	20
4	Arsenal	9	4	3	2	+7	+2.7	15
5	Bournemouth	10	4	3	3	+2	+5.2	15
6	Man City	10	4	2	4	+2	-1.8	14
7	Fulham	9	3	4	2	+2	+1.4	13
8	Newcastle	9	3	3	3	+2	+1.8	12
9	Brighton	9	3	3	3	+0	-3.9	12
10	West Ham	9	3	3	3	-3	-1.9	12
11	Tottenham	9	3	1	5	+7	+1.6	10
12	Crystal Palace	9	2	4	3	+0	-2.4	10
13	Aston Villa	9	3	1	5	-8	-5.2	10
14	Man United	9	2	3	4	-2	-1.0	9
15	Wolves	10	2	3	5	-5	-6.1	9
16	Ipswich	9	2	2	5	-7	-13.9	8
17	Everton	9	1	4	4	-8	-3.7	7
18	Leicester	9	1	2	6	-14	-11.8	5
19	Brentford	9	0	2	7	-10	-9.8	2
20	Southampton	10	0	2	8	-12	-10.3	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.