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Premier League

Referee: A Madley

Brighton

T S U S S

3–4

Full-time

Aston Villa

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,7

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 50%

46%

54%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

62%

46%

Both score Ø 54%

69%

38%

Average goals

2,8

2,1

Scored

1,6

1,2

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

2,21 xG 2,41

56% Possession 44%

16 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 10

3 Blocked shots 2

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 6

4 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 5. · Aston Villa 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	13	9	3	1	+18	+15.5	30
2	Man City	14	9	1	4	+16	+12.2	28
3	Chelsea	13	7	3	3	+12	+7.7	24
4	Aston Villa	13	7	3	3	+5	-4.9	24
5	Brighton	13	6	4	3	+5	+4.0	22
6	Sunderland	13	6	4	3	+4	-5.3	22
7	Man United	13	6	3	4	+1	+2.5	21
8	Liverpool	13	7	0	6	+0	+5.3	21
9	Everton	14	6	3	5	-2	-2.3	21
10	Crystal Palace	13	5	5	3	+6	+6.7	20
11	Tottenham	14	5	4	5	+5	-6.9	19
12	Brentford	13	6	1	6	+1	+5.9	19
13	Newcastle	14	5	4	5	+1	+3.7	19
14	Bournemouth	14	5	4	5	-3	+1.2	19
15	Fulham	14	5	2	7	-3	-3.5	17
16	Nott'm Forest	13	3	3	7	-9	-4.4	12
17	West Ham	13	3	2	8	-12	-8.7	11
18	Leeds	13	3	2	8	-12	-3.1	11
19	Burnley	13	3	1	9	-12	-19.1	10
20	Wolves	13	0	2	11	-21	-6.6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	7	6	0	1	+13	+8.7	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	1	0	+14	+9.0	16
3	Brentford	7	5	1	1	+7	+4.5	16
4	Aston Villa	7	5	1	1	+6	-1.6	16
5	Sunderland	7	4	3	0	+7	-0.9	15
6	Brighton	6	4	2	0	+6	+2.6	14
7	Bournemouth	7	4	2	1	+5	+4.9	14
8	Fulham	7	4	1	2	+5	+1.0	13
9	Newcastle	7	4	1	2	+3	+4.7	13
10	Man United	6	4	0	2	+4	+6.8	12
11	Liverpool	6	4	0	2	+2	+3.3	12
12	Chelsea	7	3	2	2	+3	+3.1	11
13	Everton	7	3	2	2	-1	+0.9	11
14	Crystal Palace	7	2	4	1	+2	+5.9	10
15	Leeds	6	2	2	2	+0	+4.8	8
16	Burnley	6	2	1	3	-1	-8.0	7
17	Nott'm Forest	7	2	1	4	-5	+0.9	7
18	West Ham	7	2	0	5	-9	-4.1	6
19	Tottenham	7	1	2	4	-1	-2.8	5
20	Wolves	6	0	1	5	-10	-0.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	7	4	2	1	+6	-4.2	14
2	Arsenal	7	4	2	1	+4	+6.6	14
3	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	+9	+4.6	13
4	Crystal Palace	6	3	1	2	+4	+0.7	10
5	Man City	7	3	1	3	+3	+3.5	10
6	Everton	7	3	1	3	-1	-3.2	10
7	Liverpool	7	3	0	4	-2	+2.0	9
8	Man United	7	2	3	2	-3	-4.3	9
9	Brighton	7	2	2	3	-1	+1.4	8
10	Aston Villa	6	2	2	2	-1	-3.2	8
11	Sunderland	6	2	1	3	-3	-4.4	7
12	Newcastle	7	1	3	3	-2	-1.0	6
13	West Ham	6	1	2	3	-3	-4.6	5
14	Nott'm Forest	6	1	2	3	-4	-5.3	5
15	Bournemouth	7	1	2	4	-8	-3.7	5
16	Fulham	7	1	1	5	-8	-4.5	4
17	Brentford	6	1	0	5	-6	+1.5	3
18	Burnley	7	1	0	6	-11	-11.1	3
19	Leeds	7	1	0	6	-12	-7.9	3
20	Wolves	7	0	1	6	-11	-6.2	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.