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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Hernandez

Ath Madrid

T S S T S

2–2

Full-time

Villarreal

U T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,3

4,2

Scored

1,0

2,5

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

2,0

4,0

Scored

2,0

Conceded

0,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,78 xG 3,60

52% Possession 48%

19 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 6

10 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 3

3 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Madrid 4. · Villarreal 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sevilla	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.5	6
2	Alaves	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.3	4
3	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+2	-0.4	3
4	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
5	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.7	3
6	Betis	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
7	Santander	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
8	Villarreal	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
9	La Coruna	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
10	Elche	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
11	Valencia	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
12	Celta	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
13	Vallecano	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.9	1
14	Sociedad	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
15	Ath Bilbao	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.8	0
16	Malaga	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
17	Getafe	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.7	0
18	Levante	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Alaves	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.7	3
2	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+2	-0.4	3
3	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
4	Sevilla	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
5	Betis	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
6	Santander	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
7	Vallecano	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.6	1
8	La Coruna	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
9	Valencia	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
10	Ath Bilbao	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sevilla	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.8	3
2	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.7	3
3	Villarreal	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
4	Alaves	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.6	1
5	Elche	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
6	Celta	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
7	Vallecano	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
8	Sociedad	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
9	Malaga	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
10	Getafe	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.7	0
11	Levante	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.