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Premier League

Referee: R Jones

Brighton

U T U T T

1–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

S T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,5

3,7

Scored

0,3

2,0

Conceded

2,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,8

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 34/35 matches

Win Ø 45%

32%

57%

Points per game

1,3

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

65%

71%

Both score Ø 69%

68%

69%

Average goals

3,2

3,6

Scored

1,5

2,1

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,53 xG 0,05

53% Possession 47%

15 Shots 2

8 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

7 Corners 3

4 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 14. · Aston Villa 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	36	26	5	5	+60	+45.9	83
2	Man City	35	25	7	3	+54	+40.6	82
3	Liverpool	35	22	9	4	+41	+38.2	75
4	Aston Villa	35	20	7	8	+21	+6.5	67
5	Tottenham	34	18	6	10	+13	+3.0	60
6	Newcastle	35	17	5	13	+22	+11.2	56
7	Man United	34	16	6	12	+1	-9.4	54
8	Chelsea	34	14	9	11	+6	+13.6	51
9	West Ham	35	13	10	12	-9	-17.1	49
10	Bournemouth	36	13	9	14	-11	-2.8	48
11	Wolves	36	13	7	16	-11	-16.1	46
12	Everton	36	12	9	15	-11	-0.6	45
13	Fulham	36	12	8	16	-4	-8.5	44
14	Brighton	34	11	11	12	-5	-0.4	44
15	Crystal Palace	35	10	10	15	-12	-7.7	40
16	Brentford	36	9	9	18	-8	+5.0	36
17	Nott'm Forest	36	8	9	19	-18	-4.1	33
18	Luton	36	6	8	22	-29	-34.7	26
19	Burnley	36	5	9	22	-35	-28.4	24
20	Sheffield United	36	3	7	26	-65	-34.4	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	18	13	5	0	+33	+25.8	44
2	Arsenal	18	14	2	2	+31	+28.5	44
3	Liverpool	17	13	3	1	+28	+31.6	42
4	Newcastle	18	12	3	3	+27	+21.0	39
5	Aston Villa	18	12	3	3	+20	+11.7	39
6	Tottenham	17	12	0	5	+12	+9.1	36
7	Chelsea	17	9	4	4	+12	+17.3	31
8	Man United	17	9	3	5	+3	+2.4	30
9	Fulham	18	9	2	7	+11	+2.9	29
10	Brighton	16	7	6	3	+5	+4.5	27
11	Bournemouth	18	7	6	5	+0	+3.7	27
12	Wolves	18	8	3	7	-2	-6.3	27
13	West Ham	18	6	8	4	+1	-6.5	26
14	Everton	18	7	4	7	+3	+8.0	25
15	Crystal Palace	17	6	4	7	+2	+3.5	22
16	Brentford	18	5	7	6	-3	+4.2	22
17	Nott'm Forest	18	5	5	8	-2	+2.9	20
18	Luton	18	4	4	10	-7	-6.2	16
19	Burnley	18	2	4	12	-23	-6.6	10
20	Sheffield United	18	2	4	12	-35	-11.4	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	18	12	3	3	+29	+17.4	39
2	Man City	17	12	2	3	+21	+14.8	38
3	Liverpool	18	9	6	3	+13	+6.6	33
4	Aston Villa	17	8	4	5	+1	-5.2	28
5	Tottenham	17	6	6	5	+1	-6.1	24
6	Man United	17	7	3	7	-2	-11.9	24
7	West Ham	17	7	2	8	-10	-10.6	23
8	Bournemouth	18	6	3	9	-11	-6.5	21
9	Chelsea	17	5	5	7	-6	-3.7	20
10	Everton	18	5	5	8	-14	-8.6	20
11	Wolves	18	5	4	9	-9	-9.7	19
12	Crystal Palace	18	4	6	8	-14	-11.1	18
13	Newcastle	17	5	2	10	-5	-9.8	17
14	Brighton	18	4	5	9	-10	-4.9	17
15	Fulham	18	3	6	9	-15	-11.4	15
16	Brentford	18	4	2	12	-5	+0.8	14
17	Burnley	18	3	5	10	-12	-21.8	14
18	Nott'm Forest	18	3	4	11	-16	-7.1	13
19	Luton	18	2	4	12	-22	-28.4	10
20	Sheffield United	18	1	3	14	-30	-22.9	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.