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Premier League
Referee: Stuart Attwell
Newcastle
T S U S T
2–2
Full-time
Liverpool
S T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Liverpool
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 84%
67%
100%
Average goals
2,7
3,7
Scored
1,3
1,8
Conceded
1,3
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,58 xG 2,98
39% Possession 61%
13 Shots 27
4 Shots on target 7
4 Blocked shots 16
5 Goalkeeper saves 3
2 Corners 6
2 Offside 1
16 Free kicks against 15
5 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match ▾
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Brighton 1 1 0 0 +4 +3.5 3
2 Arsenal 1 1 0 0 +3 +1.7 3
3 Brentford 1 1 0 0 +3 +3.3 3
4 Everton 1 1 0 0 +2 -0.8 3
5 Hull 1 1 0 0 +2 -0.8 3
6 Man City 1 1 0 0 +1 +1.6 3
7 Ipswich 1 1 0 0 +1 +1.1 3
8 Leeds 1 1 0 0 +1 -0.2 3
9 Bournemouth 1 0 0 1 -1 -1.6 0
10 Sunderland 1 0 0 1 -1 -1.1 0
11 Nott'm Forest 1 0 0 1 -1 +0.2 0
12 Crystal Palace 1 0 0 1 -2 +0.8 0
13 Man United 1 0 0 1 -2 +0.8 0
14 Coventry 1 0 0 1 -3 -1.7 0
15 Tottenham 1 0 0 1 -3 -3.3 0
16 Aston Villa 1 0 0 1 -4 -3.5 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

31. Jan -26 Liverpool – Newcastle 4–1 25. Aug -25 Newcastle – Liverpool 2–3 16. Mar -25 Liverpool – Newcastle 1–2 26. Feb -25 Liverpool – Newcastle 2–0 4. Dec -24 Newcastle – Liverpool 3–3

Match report

Newcastle Liverpool
1–0 A. Elanga ⚽
W. Osula
5′
Yoane Wissa 🟨
25′
30′
🟨 Jeremie Frimpong
30′
🟨 Miloš Kerkez
Lewis Miley 🟨
34′
Half-time 1–1
55′
⚽ C. Gakpo 1–1
R. Gravenberch
J. Willock 🔁
↦ W. Osula
56′
J. Ramsey 🔁
↦ S. Steur
56′
2–1 J. Willock ⚽
Y. Wissa
57′
63′
🔁 A. Mac Allister
↦ F. Wirtz
63′
🔁 V. Munoz
↦ R. Ngumoha
Jacob Ramsey 🟨
64′
70′
🔁 R. Araujo
↦ J. Jacquet
A. Bamba 🔁
↦ L. Miley
76′
J. Murphy 🔁
↦ A. Elanga
76′
78′
🔁 L. Koumas
↦ R. Gravenberch
Jacob Murphy 🟨
79′
90′
🟨 Virgil van Dijk
90′
⚽ D. Szoboszlai 2–2
Lukáš Horníček 🟨
93′
F. Schar 🔁
↦ Y. Wissa
95′
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Newcastle

4-2-3-1
21 L. Hornicek G
37 A. Dedic D
12 M. Thiaw D
4 S. Botman D
3 L. Hall D
14 S. Steur M
67 L. Miley M
19 A. Elanga M
9 Y. Wissa M
11 H. Barnes M
10 W. Osula F
Bench (9)
24 E. Jaouen
51 L. Shahar
5 F. Schar
28 J. Willock
41 J. Ramsey
8 A. Bamba
17 B. Toure
23 J. Murphy
27 N. Woltemade

Coach: Matthias Jaissle

Liverpool

4-2-3-1
1 Alisson G
30 J. Frimpong D
5 J. Jacquet D
4 V. van Dijk D
6 M. Kerkez D
8 D. Szoboszlai M
38 R. Gravenberch M
73 R. Ngumoha M
7 F. Wirtz M
18 C. Gakpo M
9 A. Isak F
Bench (9)
25 G. Mamardashvili
21 K. Tsimikas
33 R. Araujo
10 A. Mac Allister
3 W. Endo
53 J. McConnell
42 T. Nyoni
67 L. Koumas
23 V. Munoz

Coach: Andoni Iraola

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,57
🔒
U ✓
3,85
🔒
B
1,92
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,51
🔒
U2,5
2,53
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Stuart Attwell · 111 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
18,0 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.