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Championship

Referee: Anthony Backhouse

West Brom

S U T S S

3–1

Full-time

Burnley

U T U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

West Brom Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

3,0

4,0

Scored

2,0

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,63 xG 1,18

51% Possession 49%

11 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 5

8 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match West Brom 10. · Burnley 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Millwall	2	2	0	0	+5	+4.5	6
2	Charlton	2	2	0	0	+2	-2.2	6
3	Wolves	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.1	4
4	QPR	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.5	4
5	Blackburn	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.7	4
6	Watford	2	1	1	0	+1	-2.2	4
7	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.9	4
8	Bolton	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.7	4
9	Southampton	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.3	3
10	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.1	3
11	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.0	3
12	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.2	3
13	Cardiff	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
14	Birmingham	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.0	2
15	Wrexham	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.8	2
16	Sheffield United	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.4	2
17	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
18	West Ham	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.2	1
19	Derby	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
20	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-2	-3.4	1
21	Stoke	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.4	0
22	Lincoln	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.6	0
23	Preston	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.9	0
24	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.7	3
2	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.4	3
3	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.9	3
4	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.7	3
5	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.5	3
6	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
7	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
8	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
9	Wolves	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
10	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
11	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
12	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
13	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
14	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
15	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.6	1
16	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
17	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.1	0
18	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	+2.2	0
19	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
20	Preston	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
21	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
22	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-2	+1.1	0
23	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
2	QPR	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.1	3
3	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+2	-1.1	3
4	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.9	3
5	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.1	3
6	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	-2.2	3
7	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
8	West Ham	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.0	1
9	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
10	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
11	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
12	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
13	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
14	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
15	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.6	1
16	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
17	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
18	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.7	0
19	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.5	0
20	Derby	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
21	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
22	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.4	0
23	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.