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Premier League

Referee: C Kavanagh

Newcastle

T T T T T

3–1

Full-time

Brighton

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

2,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 37%

35%

38%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

65%

47%

Both score Ø 62%

65%

59%

Average goals

2,8

2,6

Scored

1,4

Conceded

1,5

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

3,16 xG 1,53

32% Possession 68%

13 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 10

1 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 15. · Brighton 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	34	22	7	5	+38	+31.3	73
2	Man City	33	21	7	5	+37	+25.8	70
3	Man United	34	17	10	7	+14	+12.4	61
4	Liverpool	34	17	7	10	+13	+13.6	58
5	Aston Villa	34	17	7	10	+5	-5.5	58
6	Brighton	34	13	11	10	+9	+7.3	50
7	Bournemouth	34	11	16	7	+0	+4.6	49
8	Chelsea	34	13	9	12	+8	+15.8	48
9	Brentford	34	13	9	12	+3	+8.7	48
10	Fulham	34	14	6	14	-2	-4.3	48
11	Everton	34	13	8	13	+0	-9.6	47
12	Sunderland	34	12	10	12	-9	-15.9	46
13	Crystal Palace	33	11	10	12	-3	+9.0	43
14	Leeds	35	10	13	12	-5	+2.2	43
15	Newcastle	34	12	6	16	-4	+4.5	42
16	Nott'm Forest	34	10	9	15	-4	-8.6	39
17	West Ham	34	9	9	16	-16	-12.6	36
18	Tottenham	34	8	10	16	-10	-13.7	34
19	Burnley	35	4	8	23	-36	-41.0	20
20	Wolves	34	3	8	23	-38	-24.0	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	17	13	2	2	+26	+18.1	41
2	Man City	16	12	3	1	+26	+14.1	39
3	Man United	17	11	3	3	+13	+12.8	36
4	Aston Villa	17	11	2	4	+9	+1.9	35
5	Liverpool	17	10	4	3	+14	+9.3	34
6	Fulham	17	10	2	5	+9	+2.2	32
7	Brighton	17	8	6	3	+10	+7.4	30
8	Leeds	18	8	5	5	+7	+10.0	29
9	Sunderland	17	8	5	4	+4	-4.1	29
10	Brentford	17	7	7	3	+9	+11.8	28
11	Bournemouth	17	6	9	2	+6	+12.5	27
12	Newcastle	17	8	2	7	+2	+6.7	26
13	Chelsea	17	6	5	6	+2	+9.0	23
14	Everton	17	6	4	7	+1	-1.5	22
15	Crystal Palace	17	4	8	5	-3	+9.5	20
16	West Ham	17	5	4	8	-5	-1.8	19
17	Nott'm Forest	17	4	6	7	-3	+1.9	18
18	Wolves	17	3	3	11	-15	-8.8	12
19	Tottenham	17	2	5	10	-10	-4.2	11
20	Burnley	17	2	5	10	-11	-16.8	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	17	9	5	3	+12	+13.2	32
2	Man City	17	9	4	4	+11	+11.7	31
3	Chelsea	17	7	4	6	+6	+6.8	25
4	Man United	17	6	7	4	+1	-0.4	25
5	Everton	17	7	4	6	-1	-8.1	25
6	Liverpool	17	7	3	7	-1	+4.3	24
7	Tottenham	17	6	5	6	+0	-9.5	23
8	Crystal Palace	16	7	2	7	+0	-0.5	23
9	Aston Villa	17	6	5	6	-4	-7.4	23
10	Bournemouth	17	5	7	5	-6	-7.8	22
11	Nott'm Forest	17	6	3	8	-1	-10.5	21
12	Brighton	17	5	5	7	-1	-0.1	20
13	Brentford	17	6	2	9	-6	-3.1	20
14	West Ham	17	4	5	8	-11	-10.8	17
15	Sunderland	17	4	5	8	-13	-11.8	17
16	Newcastle	17	4	4	9	-6	-2.2	16
17	Fulham	17	4	4	9	-11	-6.5	16
18	Leeds	17	2	8	7	-12	-7.8	14
19	Burnley	18	2	3	13	-25	-24.1	9
20	Wolves	17	0	5	12	-23	-15.3	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.