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Ligue 1

Referee: P Gaillouste

Lille

T S T S T

2–1

Full-time

Toulouse

U T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

100%

33%

Average goals

4,0

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

2,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 36%

43%

29%

Points per game

1,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 72%

86%

57%

Both score Ø 72%

100%

43%

Average goals

4,1

2,7

Scored

2,0

1,1

Conceded

2,1

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

45% Possession 55%

10 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 7

1 Offside 5

20 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 9. · Toulouse 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	6	1	0	+21	19
2	Marseille	7	6	1	0	+11	19
3	Lorient	8	6	1	1	+5	19
4	Lens	7	5	2	0	+9	17
5	Lyon	7	4	1	2	+7	13
6	Montpellier	8	4	0	4	+4	12
7	Rennes	7	3	2	2	+6	11
8	Monaco	7	3	2	2	-2	11
9	Lille	7	3	1	3	-1	10
10	Clermont	7	3	1	3	-2	10
11	Toulouse	7	2	2	3	-3	8
12	Nice	7	2	2	3	-3	8
13	Troyes	7	2	1	4	-4	7
14	Auxerre	8	2	1	5	-11	7
15	Nantes	7	1	3	3	-3	6
16	Reims	7	1	3	3	-4	6
17	Strasbourg	8	0	5	3	-3	5
18	Brest	7	1	2	4	-9	5
19	Angers	7	1	2	4	-10	5
20	Ajaccio	7	0	1	6	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lyon	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Lens	4	4	0	0	+6	12
3	Marseille	4	4	0	0	+6	12
4	Rennes	4	3	0	1	+7	9
5	Lorient	3	3	0	0	+4	9
6	Montpellier	5	3	0	2	+1	9
7	Paris SG	3	2	1	0	+4	7
8	Clermont	3	2	0	1	-2	6
9	Toulouse	4	1	2	1	-2	5
10	Nantes	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Troyes	3	1	1	1	-1	4
12	Angers	4	1	1	2	-3	4
13	Auxerre	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	Monaco	4	1	1	2	-4	4
15	Strasbourg	4	0	3	1	-1	3
16	Lille	3	1	0	2	-4	3
17	Reims	3	0	2	1	-2	2
18	Brest	3	0	2	1	-7	2
19	Nice	3	0	1	2	-4	1
20	Ajaccio	4	0	1	3	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	4	4	0	0	+17	12
2	Lorient	5	3	1	1	+1	10
3	Marseille	3	2	1	0	+5	7
4	Lille	4	2	1	1	+3	7
5	Monaco	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	Nice	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Lens	3	1	2	0	+3	5
8	Clermont	4	1	1	2	+0	4
9	Reims	4	1	1	2	-2	4
10	Montpellier	3	1	0	2	+3	3
11	Toulouse	3	1	0	2	-1	3
12	Brest	4	1	0	3	-2	3
13	Troyes	4	1	0	3	-3	3
14	Auxerre	4	1	0	3	-8	3
15	Rennes	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Nantes	4	0	2	2	-2	2
17	Strasbourg	4	0	2	2	-2	2
18	Lyon	3	0	1	2	-3	1
19	Angers	3	0	1	2	-7	1
20	Ajaccio	3	0	0	3	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.