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Ligue 1

Referee: H Ben El Hadj

Toulouse

T U S U T

0–3

Full-time

Paris SG

S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Paris SG

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,3

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

5,2

Scored

1,5

4,5

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+3,8

This season — Ligue 1 · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 50%

25%

75%

Points per game

1,3

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

75%

Both score Ø 75%

75%

Average goals

3,3

5,5

Scored

1,8

4,5

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+3,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

38% Possession 62%

14 Shots 20

7 Shots on target 13

2 Blocked shots 1

9 Goalkeeper saves 7

3 Corners 9

1 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 12. · Paris SG 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	4	3	1	0	+14	10
2	Marseille	4	3	1	0	+7	10
3	Lens	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	Lyon	4	3	1	0	+5	10
5	Montpellier	5	3	0	2	+6	9
6	Lorient	3	2	1	0	+2	7
7	Lille	4	2	1	1	-1	7
8	Auxerre	5	2	1	2	-2	7
9	Nantes	5	1	3	1	+1	6
10	Troyes	5	2	0	3	-3	6
11	Clermont	4	2	0	2	-3	6
12	Toulouse	4	1	2	1	+1	5
13	Reims	5	1	2	2	-3	5
14	Monaco	5	1	2	2	-4	5
15	Rennes	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Brest	4	1	1	2	-6	4
17	Strasbourg	5	0	3	2	-2	3
18	Nice	4	0	2	2	-4	2
19	Angers	5	0	2	3	-6	2
20	Ajaccio	5	0	1	4	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lyon	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Marseille	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Montpellier	3	2	0	1	+2	6
4	Lens	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Paris SG	2	1	1	0	+3	4
6	Nantes	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Auxerre	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Lorient	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Rennes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Troyes	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Lille	2	1	0	1	-3	3
12	Clermont	2	1	0	1	-4	3
13	Toulouse	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Strasbourg	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Reims	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Ajaccio	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Nice	2	0	1	1	-3	1
18	Angers	3	0	1	2	-4	1
19	Monaco	3	0	1	2	-5	1
20	Brest	2	0	1	1	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	2	2	0	0	+11	6
2	Lens	2	1	1	0	+3	4
3	Marseille	2	1	1	0	+3	4
4	Lille	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Lorient	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Monaco	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Reims	3	1	1	1	-1	4
8	Montpellier	2	1	0	1	+4	3
9	Clermont	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Brest	2	1	0	1	+1	3
11	Toulouse	2	1	0	1	+1	3
12	Troyes	3	1	0	2	-2	3
13	Auxerre	3	1	0	2	-3	3
14	Nantes	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Lyon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Rennes	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Nice	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Strasbourg	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Angers	2	0	1	1	-2	1
20	Ajaccio	3	0	0	3	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.