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Ligue 1

Referee: Gustavo Correia

Toulouse

T S T U S

2–2

Full-time

Lorient

T T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Lorient

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

1,3

0,5

Conceded

0,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 2/1 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

2,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,5

1,0

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

0,5

0,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

52% Possession 48%

16 Shots 14

8 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

3 Corners 6

2 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 6. · Lorient 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lens	3	2	1	0	+4	7
2	Marseille	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	Paris SG	2	2	0	0	+8	6
4	Lyon	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Lille	2	1	1	0	+3	4
6	Toulouse	2	1	1	0	+3	4
7	Monaco	3	1	1	1	-2	4
8	Lorient	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Montpellier	2	1	0	1	-2	3
10	Clermont	2	1	0	1	-3	3
11	Angers	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Nice	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Strasbourg	3	0	2	1	-1	2
14	Nantes	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Brest	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Rennes	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Ajaccio	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Auxerre	2	0	1	1	-3	1
19	Reims	3	0	1	2	-5	1
20	Troyes	3	0	0	3	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lyon	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Marseille	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Paris SG	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Lille	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	Montpellier	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Lens	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Auxerre	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Brest	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Toulouse	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Nice	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Nantes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Angers	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Ajaccio	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Strasbourg	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Monaco	2	0	1	1	-3	1
16	Rennes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Reims	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Troyes	1	0	0	1	-3	0
19	Clermont	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lens	2	1	1	0	+3	4
2	Paris SG	1	1	0	0	+5	3
3	Toulouse	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Clermont	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Monaco	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Lorient	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Angers	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Rennes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Marseille	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Nice	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Strasbourg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Lille	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Nantes	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Reims	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	Brest	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Ajaccio	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Montpellier	1	0	0	1	-3	0
18	Auxerre	1	0	0	1	-3	0
19	Troyes	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.