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Ligue 2

Referee: A Petit

Bastia

T T T S U

1–0

Full-time

Metz

U T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bastia Metz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

2,5

4,2

Scored

0,8

2,2

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,2

This season — Ligue 2 · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 38%

38%

Points per game

1,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

50%

63%

Both score Ø 38%

25%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,6

Scored

1,1

2,0

Conceded

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

35% Possession 65%

14 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 6

2 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bastia 12. · Metz 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bordeaux	9	5	2	2	+8	17
2	Sochaux	8	5	1	2	+10	16
3	Guingamp	8	5	1	2	+6	16
4	Le Havre	8	4	3	1	+9	15
5	Caen	8	4	3	1	+6	15
6	Amiens	8	4	2	2	+0	14
7	Valenciennes	8	3	4	1	+1	13
8	Metz	8	3	2	3	+3	11
9	Dijon	9	3	2	4	-3	11
10	St Etienne	9	2	4	3	-1	10
11	Paris FC	8	2	4	2	-1	10
12	Bastia	8	3	1	4	-4	10
13	Annecy	8	2	3	3	+0	9
14	Grenoble	8	2	3	3	-3	9
15	Nimes	8	2	2	4	-2	8
16	Laval	8	2	1	5	-5	7
17	Quevilly Rouen	8	1	4	3	-5	7
18	Niort	8	2	1	5	-7	7
19	Pau FC	8	1	4	3	-7	7
20	Rodez	7	1	3	3	-5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Caen	4	3	1	0	+6	10
2	Bordeaux	5	3	1	1	+5	10
3	Amiens	4	3	1	0	+4	10
4	Valenciennes	4	2	2	0	+2	8
5	Sochaux	4	2	1	1	+5	7
6	Guingamp	4	2	1	1	+4	7
7	Metz	5	2	1	2	+1	7
8	St Etienne	4	2	1	1	+1	7
9	Grenoble	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Nimes	4	2	1	1	+1	7
11	Dijon	5	2	1	2	-2	7
12	Quevilly Rouen	4	1	3	0	+1	6
13	Le Havre	4	1	3	0	+1	6
14	Bastia	4	2	0	2	+0	6
15	Paris FC	3	1	1	1	-1	4
16	Annecy	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Niort	4	1	0	3	-4	3
18	Pau FC	3	0	2	1	-3	2
19	Rodez	4	0	2	2	-6	2
20	Laval	4	0	1	3	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Le Havre	4	3	0	1	+8	9
2	Sochaux	4	3	0	1	+5	9
3	Guingamp	4	3	0	1	+2	9
4	Bordeaux	4	2	1	1	+3	7
5	Paris FC	5	1	3	1	+0	6
6	Laval	4	2	0	2	-1	6
7	Annecy	4	1	2	1	+1	5
8	Caen	4	1	2	1	+0	5
9	Valenciennes	4	1	2	1	-1	5
10	Pau FC	5	1	2	2	-4	5
11	Metz	3	1	1	1	+2	4
12	Rodez	3	1	1	1	+1	4
13	Dijon	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Niort	4	1	1	2	-3	4
15	Bastia	4	1	1	2	-4	4
16	Amiens	4	1	1	2	-4	4
17	St Etienne	5	0	3	2	-2	3
18	Grenoble	4	0	2	2	-4	2
19	Nimes	4	0	1	3	-3	1
20	Quevilly Rouen	4	0	1	3	-6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.