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Ligue 1

Referee: T Léonard

Lille

T S S S T

3–0

Full-time

Toulouse

T U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,5

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

1,0

0,3

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 30%

48%

12%

Points per game

1,6

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

44%

56%

Both score Ø 44%

44%

Average goals

2,3

2,9

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,1

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

60% Possession 40%

18 Shots 7

9 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

5 Corners 0

1 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 20

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 4. · Toulouse 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	25	20	2	3	+46	62
2	Marseille	26	15	7	4	+11	52
3	Rennes	25	12	5	8	+6	41
4	Lille	25	12	4	9	+3	40
5	Monaco	25	11	5	9	+1	38
6	Lyon	26	10	7	9	+14	37
7	Montpellier	25	10	7	8	+4	37
8	Strasbourg	25	11	4	10	+3	37
9	Nice	26	10	7	9	+2	37
10	Nantes	26	11	4	11	+0	37
11	Reims	25	9	9	7	+4	36
12	Bordeaux	25	9	8	8	+7	35
13	Brest	26	8	10	8	-1	34
14	Angers	25	8	6	11	-9	30
15	Metz	26	6	10	10	-10	28
16	St Etienne	25	8	4	13	-14	28
17	Nimes	25	7	6	12	-12	27
18	Dijon	25	6	8	11	-7	26
19	Amiens	25	4	9	12	-18	21
20	Toulouse	25	3	4	18	-30	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	10	1	1	+28	31
2	Montpellier	13	9	2	2	+13	29
3	Lille	13	9	2	2	+11	29
4	Marseille	13	8	3	2	+7	27
5	Monaco	13	8	1	4	+7	25
6	Nice	14	7	4	3	+7	25
7	Brest	13	6	6	1	+11	24
8	Strasbourg	12	7	2	3	+8	23
9	Rennes	12	7	2	3	+5	23
10	Angers	13	6	3	4	+4	21
11	Dijon	12	5	5	2	+4	20
12	Nimes	13	6	2	5	+3	20
13	Nantes	13	6	2	5	+1	20
14	Reims	13	4	7	2	+4	19
15	Lyon	12	4	4	4	+8	16
16	Bordeaux	12	4	4	4	+7	16
17	Metz	13	4	4	5	+0	16
18	St Etienne	12	4	4	4	-3	16
19	Amiens	13	3	5	5	-5	14
20	Toulouse	12	3	0	9	-11	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	10	1	2	+18	31
2	Marseille	13	7	4	2	+4	25
3	Lyon	14	6	3	5	+6	21
4	Bordeaux	13	5	4	4	+0	19
5	Rennes	13	5	3	5	+1	18
6	Reims	12	5	2	5	+0	17
7	Nantes	13	5	2	6	-1	17
8	Strasbourg	13	4	2	7	-5	14
9	Monaco	12	3	4	5	-6	13
10	Nice	12	3	3	6	-5	12
11	Metz	13	2	6	5	-10	12
12	St Etienne	13	4	0	9	-11	12
13	Lille	12	3	2	7	-8	11
14	Brest	13	2	4	7	-12	10
15	Angers	12	2	3	7	-13	9
16	Montpellier	12	1	5	6	-9	8
17	Amiens	12	1	4	7	-13	7
18	Nimes	12	1	4	7	-15	7
19	Dijon	13	1	3	9	-11	6
20	Toulouse	13	0	4	9	-19	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.