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Ligue 1

Referee: S Frappart

Toulouse

U T T U T

2–1

Full-time

Lille

S U S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Lille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 33%

22%

44%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

44%

Both score Ø 50%

44%

56%

Average goals

2,7

2,4

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

40% Possession 60%

17 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 19. · Lille 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	8	0	2	+16	24
2	Nantes	9	6	1	2	+4	19
3	Angers	9	5	1	3	+1	16
4	Bordeaux	9	4	3	2	+5	15
5	Lille	9	4	3	2	+4	15
6	Reims	9	4	2	3	+4	14
7	Montpellier	9	4	2	3	+2	14
8	Marseille	9	3	4	2	-1	13
9	Nice	10	4	1	5	-4	13
10	Rennes	9	3	3	3	+1	12
11	Amiens	9	3	2	4	-2	11
12	Brest	9	2	5	2	-3	11
13	St Etienne	9	3	2	4	-5	11
14	Lyon	10	2	4	4	+5	10
15	Nimes	9	2	3	4	-2	9
16	Monaco	9	2	3	4	-4	9
17	Strasbourg	9	2	3	4	-4	9
18	Dijon	10	2	3	5	-5	9
19	Toulouse	9	2	3	4	-6	9
20	Metz	9	2	2	5	-6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Angers	5	4	1	0	+10	13
2	Lille	5	4	1	0	+7	13
3	Nantes	5	4	1	0	+4	13
4	Paris SG	5	4	0	1	+10	12
5	Montpellier	5	4	0	1	+4	12
6	Brest	5	2	3	0	+3	9
7	Strasbourg	5	2	2	1	+0	8
8	Monaco	5	2	1	2	+1	7
9	Amiens	5	2	1	2	+0	7
10	Nice	5	2	1	2	-2	7
11	Nimes	4	2	0	2	+2	6
12	Toulouse	4	2	0	2	-1	6
13	Lyon	5	1	2	2	+4	5
14	Bordeaux	4	1	2	1	+1	5
15	Reims	4	1	2	1	+1	5
16	St Etienne	4	1	2	1	+0	5
17	Marseille	4	1	2	1	-1	5
18	Dijon	5	1	2	2	-2	5
19	Metz	4	1	1	2	+0	4
20	Rennes	4	1	1	2	-1	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	5	4	0	1	+6	12
2	Bordeaux	5	3	1	1	+4	10
3	Reims	5	3	0	2	+3	9
4	Rennes	5	2	2	1	+2	8
5	Marseille	5	2	2	1	+0	8
6	Nantes	4	2	0	2	+0	6
7	Nice	5	2	0	3	-2	6
8	St Etienne	5	2	0	3	-5	6
9	Lyon	5	1	2	2	+1	5
10	Amiens	4	1	1	2	-2	4
11	Dijon	5	1	1	3	-3	4
12	Metz	5	1	1	3	-6	4
13	Nimes	5	0	3	2	-4	3
14	Toulouse	5	0	3	2	-5	3
15	Angers	4	1	0	3	-9	3
16	Montpellier	4	0	2	2	-2	2
17	Lille	4	0	2	2	-3	2
18	Monaco	4	0	2	2	-5	2
19	Brest	4	0	2	2	-6	2
20	Strasbourg	4	0	1	3	-4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.