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Championship

Referee: R Madley

Watford

T T S U T

2–2

Full-time

Sunderland

S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Sunderland

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,7

This season — Championship · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 39%

33%

44%

Points per game

1,4

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

22%

56%

Both score Ø 50%

56%

44%

Average goals

2,0

2,6

Scored

1,0

1,6

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

56% Possession 44%

13 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 6

0 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 10. · Sunderland 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	9	6	2	1	+12	20
2	Norwich	9	6	1	2	+7	19
3	Blackburn	9	5	0	4	+0	15
4	Reading	9	5	0	4	-5	15
5	Burnley	9	3	5	1	+6	14
6	Sunderland	9	4	2	3	+5	14
7	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	+4	14
8	QPR	9	4	2	3	+3	14
9	Rotherham	8	3	4	1	+6	13
10	Watford	9	3	4	2	+0	13
11	Wigan	8	3	4	1	-1	13
12	Preston	9	2	6	1	+1	12
13	Swansea	10	3	3	4	-2	12
14	Stoke	9	3	2	4	+0	11
15	Birmingham	9	3	2	4	-2	11
16	Cardiff	9	3	2	4	-3	11
17	Blackpool	9	3	2	4	-4	11
18	Hull	10	3	2	5	-10	11
19	Luton	9	2	4	3	-1	10
20	Millwall	9	3	1	5	-4	10
21	West Brom	9	1	6	2	+1	9
22	Middlesbrough	9	2	3	4	-2	9
23	Huddersfield	8	1	1	6	-5	4
24	Coventry	6	0	2	4	-6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	5	4	1	0	+7	13
2	Sheffield United	4	4	0	0	+10	12
3	Reading	5	4	0	1	+3	12
4	Rotherham	5	3	2	0	+9	11
5	Bristol City	4	3	0	1	+5	9
6	Blackburn	5	3	0	2	+2	9
7	Millwall	5	3	0	2	+2	9
8	Watford	4	3	0	1	+2	9
9	Hull	5	3	0	2	-2	9
10	Middlesbrough	5	2	2	1	+1	8
11	QPR	4	2	1	1	+2	7
12	Cardiff	4	2	1	1	+1	7
13	Swansea	6	2	1	3	-2	7
14	West Brom	5	1	3	1	+2	6
15	Burnley	4	1	3	0	+2	6
16	Sunderland	4	1	2	1	+2	5
17	Stoke	4	1	2	1	+1	5
18	Huddersfield	5	1	1	3	-1	4
19	Birmingham	4	1	1	2	-1	4
20	Blackpool	4	1	1	2	-1	4
21	Preston	5	0	4	1	-1	4
22	Luton	5	0	3	2	-2	3
23	Wigan	4	0	3	1	-4	3
24	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wigan	4	3	1	0	+3	10
2	Sunderland	5	3	0	2	+3	9
3	Burnley	5	2	2	1	+4	8
4	Sheffield United	5	2	2	1	+2	8
5	Preston	4	2	2	0	+2	8
6	QPR	5	2	1	2	+1	7
7	Luton	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Birmingham	5	2	1	2	-1	7
9	Blackpool	5	2	1	2	-3	7
10	Norwich	4	2	0	2	+0	6
11	Stoke	5	2	0	3	-1	6
12	Blackburn	4	2	0	2	-2	6
13	Swansea	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Bristol City	5	1	2	2	-1	5
15	Watford	5	0	4	1	-2	4
16	Cardiff	5	1	1	3	-4	4
17	West Brom	4	0	3	1	-1	3
18	Reading	4	1	0	3	-8	3
19	Rotherham	3	0	2	1	-3	2
20	Coventry	5	0	2	3	-5	2
21	Hull	5	0	2	3	-8	2
22	Middlesbrough	4	0	1	3	-3	1
23	Millwall	4	0	1	3	-6	1
24	Huddersfield	3	0	0	3	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.