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LaLiga2

Referee: José Guzmán

Villarreal B

S U T S T

3–1

Full-time

Lugo

T U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal B Lugo

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/6 matches

Win Ø 45%

40%

50%

Points per game

1,4

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

80%

50%

Both score Ø 54%

40%

67%

Average goals

3,4

2,2

Scored

1,6

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

This season — LaLiga2 · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 40%

40%

Points per game

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

80%

60%

Both score Ø 60%

40%

80%

Average goals

3,4

2,4

Scored

1,6

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

47% Possession 53%

13 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 4

1 Offside 4

14 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Villarreal B 13. · Lugo 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cartagena	6	4	0	2	+2	12
2	Las Palmas	5	3	2	0	+7	11
3	Alaves	5	3	2	0	+3	11
4	Eibar	5	3	1	1	+5	10
5	Albacete	5	3	1	1	+2	10
6	Levante	6	2	3	1	+4	9
7	Granada	5	3	0	2	+2	9
8	Burgos	5	2	3	0	+2	9
9	Sp Gijon	5	2	2	1	+3	8
10	Oviedo	5	2	2	1	+1	8
11	Huesca	5	2	1	2	+2	7
12	Lugo	5	2	1	2	+0	7
13	Villarreal B	5	2	1	2	-1	7
14	Andorra	5	2	1	2	-3	7
15	Ponferradina	5	2	0	3	-2	6
16	Zaragoza	5	1	2	2	-1	5
17	Tenerife	5	1	1	3	-3	4
18	Ibiza	5	1	1	3	-5	4
19	Leganes	5	1	0	4	-3	3
20	Santander	5	1	0	4	-4	3
21	Malaga	5	1	0	4	-5	3
22	Mirandes	5	0	2	3	-6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Eibar	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Levante	4	2	1	1	+4	7
3	Las Palmas	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Burgos	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Granada	2	2	0	0	+5	6
6	Huesca	3	2	0	1	+3	6
7	Cartagena	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Villarreal B	2	1	1	0	+3	4
9	Sp Gijon	3	1	1	1	+1	4
10	Alaves	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Albacete	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Tenerife	2	1	1	0	+1	4
13	Oviedo	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Ibiza	3	1	1	1	-1	4
15	Andorra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Leganes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
17	Lugo	3	1	0	2	-1	3
18	Ponferradina	3	1	0	2	-2	3
19	Mirandes	3	0	2	1	-2	2
20	Zaragoza	2	0	1	1	-1	1
21	Santander	2	0	0	2	-3	0
22	Malaga	2	0	0	2	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Alaves	3	2	1	0	+2	7
2	Albacete	3	2	0	1	+1	6
3	Cartagena	3	2	0	1	+1	6
4	Las Palmas	2	1	1	0	+4	4
5	Sp Gijon	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Lugo	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Oviedo	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Zaragoza	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Andorra	4	1	1	2	-4	4
10	Ponferradina	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Malaga	3	1	0	2	+0	3
12	Santander	3	1	0	2	-1	3
13	Granada	3	1	0	2	-3	3
14	Villarreal B	3	1	0	2	-4	3
15	Levante	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Burgos	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Eibar	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Huesca	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Leganes	3	0	0	3	-3	0
20	Tenerife	3	0	0	3	-4	0
21	Ibiza	2	0	0	2	-4	0
22	Mirandes	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.