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Bundesliga
Referee: H Lechner
Salzburg
S U S S S
1–2
Full-time
Sturm Graz
T S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Salzburg Sturm Graz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
83%
67%
Points per game
2,7
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
2,2
3,3
Scored
1,7
2,0
Conceded
0,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Bundesliga · 24/24 matches
Win Ø 57%
50%
63%
Points per game
1,8
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
46%
71%
Both score Ø 55%
46%
63%
Average goals
2,5
3,5
Scored
1,5
2,3
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,6
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

62% Possession 38%
17 Shots 9
5 Shots on target 3
6 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 2
2 Offside 1
18 Free kicks against 9
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Salzburg 3. · Sturm Graz 1. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sturm Graz 24 15 5 4 +25 50
2 Austria Vienna 24 15 5 4 +19 50
3 Salzburg 24 12 8 4 +14 44
4 Wolfsberger AC 25 12 5 8 +15 41
5 LASK 25 12 4 9 +3 40
6 SK Rapid 24 9 7 8 +4 34
7 BW Linz 25 10 3 12 -3 33
8 Hartberg 25 7 8 10 -7 29
9 A. Klagenfurt 25 6 6 13 -24 24
10 Tirol 25 5 8 12 -11 23
11 Grazer AK 25 4 8 13 -18 20
12 Altach 25 4 7 14 -17 19

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

2. Mar -25 Salzburg – Sturm Graz 3–1 6. Oct -24 Sturm Graz – Salzburg 5–0 28. Apr -24 Salzburg – Sturm Graz 2–2 31. Mar -24 Sturm Graz – Salzburg 0–1 9. Feb -24 Salzburg – Sturm Graz 1–1

Match report

Salzburg Sturm Graz
Moussa Kounfolo Yeo 🟨
6′
1–0 A. Daghim ⚽
Y. Vertessen
32′
Mads Bidstrup ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
38′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 L. Grgić
↦ T. Chukwuani
48′
⚽ O. Kiteishvili 1–1
54′
🟨 Emanuel Aiwu
63′
🟥 Gregory Wüthrich
65′
🔁 A. Malić
↦ T. Horvat
70′
⚽ O. Kiteishvili 1–2
71′
🟨 Malick Yalcouyé
T. Trummer 🔁
↦ L. Morgalla
76′
P. Ratkov 🔁
↦ M. Yeo
76′
E. Baidoo 🔁
↦ N. Capaldo
76′
84′
🔁 K. Schopp
↦ O. Kiteishvili
89′
🔁 S. Hierländer
↦ W. Bøving
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Salzburg

4-2-2-2
1 J. Blaswich G
39 L. Morgalla D
23 J. Gadou D
6 S. Baidoo D
3 A. Terzić D
18 M. Bidstrup M
7 N. Capaldo M
45 D. Nene M
49 M. Yeo M
11 Y. Vertessen F
28 A. Daghim F
Bench (7)
37 T. Trummer
21 P. Ratkov
20 E. Baidoo
38 V. Sulzbacher
29 D. Guindo
2 M. Caufriez
52 C. Zawieschitzky

Coach: T. Letsch

Sturm Graz

4-2-3-1
1 K. Scherpen G
2 M. Johnston D
47 E. Aiwu D
5 G. Wüthrich D
24 D. Lavalée D
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič M
21 T. Chukwuani M
19 T. Horvat M
10 O. Kiteishvili M
8 M. Yalcouyé M
15 W. Bøving F
Bench (7)
38 L. Grgić
23 A. Malić
37 K. Schopp
25 S. Hierländer
26 B. Beganović
53 D. Khudyakov
43 J. Hödl

Coach: J. Säumel

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
–
🔒
U
–
🔒
B ✓
–
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

H Lechner · 116 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.