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Bundesliga

Referee: M Hameter

SK Rapid

T T T T S

2–1

Full-time

Sturm Graz

S S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

SK Rapid Sturm Graz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,2

3,3

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

2,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 11/10 matches

Win Ø 63%

55%

70%

Points per game

1,8

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

45%

50%

Both score Ø 48%

55%

40%

Average goals

2,4

2,9

Scored

1,4

1,9

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,90 xG 1,60

37% Possession 63%

12 Shots 17

1 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 8

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 15

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match SK Rapid 4. · Sturm Graz 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Salzburg	12	7	3	2	+13	+4.9	24
2	Sturm Graz	10	7	0	3	+9	+2.9	21
3	Wolfsberger AC	12	6	3	3	+8	-1.3	21
4	SK Rapid	11	6	2	3	+4	+0.8	20
5	Hartberg	12	4	4	4	+1	-0.3	16
6	Austria Vienna	12	5	1	6	-4	-0.1	16
7	LASK	12	5	1	6	-4	-4.3	16
8	Altach	12	3	5	4	-2	-0.5	14
9	Ried	12	4	2	6	-4	-3.2	14
10	Tirol	11	3	4	4	-1	+5.3	13
11	BW Linz	12	3	1	8	-8	-2.9	10
12	Grazer AK	12	1	6	5	-12	-1.4	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Salzburg	7	4	2	1	+10	+3.5	14
2	Tirol	6	3	1	2	+4	+3.9	10
3	Wolfsberger AC	7	3	1	3	+2	-1.5	10
4	LASK	6	3	1	2	+0	-2.9	10
5	Altach	6	2	3	1	+0	+0.9	9
6	SK Rapid	5	2	1	2	+0	+0.8	7
7	Grazer AK	7	1	4	2	-3	+1.4	7
8	BW Linz	6	2	0	4	-1	-2.1	6
9	Austria Vienna	6	2	0	4	-6	-0.2	6
10	Ried	6	1	2	3	-4	-1.5	5
11	Hartberg	4	1	1	2	-1	+0.2	4
12	Sturm Graz	4	1	0	3	-3	+0.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	6	6	0	0	+12	+2.9	18
2	SK Rapid	6	4	1	1	+4	-0.0	13
3	Hartberg	8	3	3	2	+2	-0.4	12
4	Wolfsberger AC	5	3	2	0	+6	+0.2	11
5	Salzburg	5	3	1	1	+3	+1.5	10
6	Austria Vienna	6	3	1	2	+2	+0.1	10
7	Ried	6	3	0	3	+0	-1.7	9
8	LASK	6	2	0	4	-4	-1.4	6
9	Altach	6	1	2	3	-2	-1.5	5
10	BW Linz	6	1	1	4	-7	-0.8	4
11	Tirol	5	0	3	2	-5	+1.4	3
12	Grazer AK	5	0	2	3	-9	-2.7	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.