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Bundesliga
Referee: S Ebner
Salzburg
T S S U T
0–2
Full-time
Sturm Graz
S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Salzburg Sturm Graz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,7
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
100%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
4,0
3,2
Scored
2,5
1,5
Conceded
1,5
1,7
Goal diff per game
+1,0
-0,2
This season — Bundesliga · 6/5 matches
Win Ø 55%
50%
60%
Points per game
1,8
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 80%
100%
60%
Both score Ø 54%
67%
40%
Average goals
3,8
2,6
Scored
2,5
1,8
Conceded
1,3
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

51% Possession 49%
16 Shots 29
5 Shots on target 9
4 Blocked shots 9
8 Goalkeeper saves 5
4 Corners 10
8 Free kicks against 15
1 Yellow cards 2
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Salzburg 2. · Sturm Graz 5. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 SK Rapid 6 5 1 0 +7 +0.8 16
2 Salzburg 6 3 2 1 +7 +4.2 11
3 Altach 6 3 2 1 +3 +1.1 11
4 Wolfsberger AC 6 3 1 2 +4 +0.1 10
5 Sturm Graz 5 3 0 2 +5 +2.9 9
6 Hartberg 6 3 0 3 +1 -0.4 9
7 Tirol 5 2 2 1 +1 +3.9 8
8 Ried 6 2 1 3 -1 -2.4 7
9 Austria Vienna 6 2 1 3 -3 +0.0 7
10 BW Linz 6 1 1 4 -4 -2.2 4
11 LASK 6 1 0 5 -9 -5.0 3
12 Grazer AK 6 0 3 3 -11 -3.0 3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

9. May -25 Sturm Graz – Salzburg 4–2 13. Apr -25 Salzburg – Sturm Graz 1–2 2. Mar -25 Salzburg – Sturm Graz 3–1 6. Oct -24 Sturm Graz – Salzburg 5–0 28. Apr -24 Salzburg – Sturm Graz 2–2

Match report

Salzburg Sturm Graz
4′
ℹ️ Maurice Malone
VAR: Goal cancelled
Soumaïla Diabaté ℹ️
VAR: Card upgrade
21′
Soumaïla Diabaté 🟥
22′
38′
🟨 Emir Karić
41′
⚽ T. Horvat 0–1
M. Malone
Half-time 0–1
C. Bischoff 🔁
↦ F. Kratzig
46′
E. Baidoo 🔁
↦ M. K. Yeo
46′
50′
⚽ S. Jatta 0–2
E. Karic
59′
🔁 O. Kiteishvili
↦ F. Rozga
59′
🔁 L. Grgic
↦ S. Jatta
K. Onisiwo 🔁
↦ P. Ratkov
67′
K. Alajbegovic 🔁
↦ Y. Vertessen
67′
Alexander Schlager 🟨
69′
77′
🔁 S. Hierlander
↦ T. Chukwuani
77′
🔁 J. Hodl
↦ T. Horvat
83′
🔁 N. Geyrhofer
↦ J. Gorenc Stankovic
86′
🟨 Maurice Malone
Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

Salzburg

4-2-3-1
1 A. Schlager G
22 S. Lainer D
44 J. Schuster D
2 J. Rasmussen D
13 F. Kratzig D
18 M. Bidstrup M
5 S. Diabate M
21 P. Ratkov M
49 M. K. Yeo M
14 M. Kjaergaard M
11 Y. Vertessen F
Bench (9)
52 C. Zawieschitzky
7 C. Bischoff
8 S. Kitano
9 K. Onisiwo
15 M. Diambou
20 E. Baidoo
23 J. Gadou
27 K. Alajbegovic
37 T. Trummer

Coach: Daniel Beichler

Sturm Graz

4-3-1-2
1 O. Christensen G
5 T. Oermann D
47 E. Aiwu D
24 D. Lavalee D
17 E. Karic D
8 F. Rozga
4 J. Gorenc Stankovic M
21 T. Chukwuani M
19 T. Horvat M
77 M. Malone F
20 S. Jatta F
Bench (9)
40 M. Bignetti
2 J. Mitchell
10 O. Kiteishvili
14 K. Bendra
25 S. Hierlander
26 B. Beganovic
35 N. Geyrhofer
38 L. Grgic
43 J. Hodl

Coach: Fabio Ingolitsch

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
–
🔒
U
–
🔒
B ✓
–
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Ebner · 100 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
28,0 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.