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Bundesliga
Referee: J Weinberger
Sturm Graz
S S T T S
4–2
Full-time
Salzburg
T S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sturm Graz Salzburg
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
2,0
2,8
Scored
1,3
1,7
Conceded
0,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,5
This season — Bundesliga · 29/29 matches
Win Ø 55%
62%
48%
Points per game
2,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 57%
66%
48%
Both score Ø 56%
59%
52%
Average goals
3,2
2,6
Scored
2,1
1,6
Conceded
1,1
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,9
+0,6
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

40% Possession 60%
16 Shots 20
5 Shots on target 5
5 Blocked shots 7
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 5
2 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 8
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sturm Graz 1. · Salzburg 5. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sturm Graz 29 18 5 6 +27 59
2 Austria Vienna 29 17 5 7 +15 56
3 LASK 29 16 4 9 +16 52
4 Wolfsberger AC 29 15 6 8 +21 51
5 Salzburg 29 14 9 6 +16 51
6 SK Rapid 29 10 8 11 +0 38
7 Hartberg 29 9 10 10 -2 37
8 BW Linz 29 11 4 14 -5 37
9 Tirol 29 6 8 15 -17 26
10 A. Klagenfurt 29 6 8 15 -33 26
11 Altach 29 5 8 16 -17 23
12 Grazer AK 29 4 11 14 -21 23

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

13. Apr -25 Salzburg – Sturm Graz 1–2 2. Mar -25 Salzburg – Sturm Graz 3–1 6. Oct -24 Sturm Graz – Salzburg 5–0 28. Apr -24 Salzburg – Sturm Graz 2–2 31. Mar -24 Sturm Graz – Salzburg 0–1

Match report

Sturm Graz Salzburg
0–1 A. Terzić ⚽
own goal
18′
1–1 W. Bøving ⚽
20′
45′
⚽ D. Nene 1–2
O. Gloukh
Half-time 2–2
2–2 G. Wüthrich ⚽
48′
56′
🔁 K. Onisiwo
↦ V. Sulzbacher
56′
🔁 E. Baidoo
↦ J. Mellberg
59′
⚽ E. Aiwu 3–2
own goal
E. Karić 🔁
↦ M. Yalcouyé
66′
T. Chukwuani 🔁
↦ T. Horvat
67′
68′
🟨 Joane Gadou
69′
🔁 P. Ratkov
↦ D. Nene
4–2 T. Chukwuani ⚽
E. Karić
72′
A. Camara 🔁
↦ L. Grgić
76′
S. Hierländer 🔁
↦ D. Lavalée
86′
J. Hödl 🔁
↦ W. Bøving
87′
Full-time 4–2

Line-ups

Sturm Graz

4-3-1-2
1 K. Scherpen G
2 M. Johnston D
47 E. Aiwu D
5 G. Wüthrich D
24 D. Lavalée D
19 T. Horvat M
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič M
8 M. Yalcouyé M
10 O. Kiteishvili M
15 W. Bøving F
38 L. Grgić F
Bench (7)
17 E. Karić
21 T. Chukwuani
36 A. Camara
25 S. Hierländer
43 J. Hödl
23 A. Malić
53 D. Khudyakov

Coach: J. Säumel

Salzburg

4-2-2-2
24 A. Schlager G
6 S. Baidoo D
23 J. Gadou D
36 J. Mellberg D
3 A. Terzić D
18 M. Bidstrup M
38 V. Sulzbacher M
45 D. Nene M
30 O. Gloukh M
28 A. Daghim F
11 Y. Vertessen F
Bench (7)
9 K. Onisiwo
20 E. Baidoo
21 P. Ratkov
39 L. Morgalla
16 T. Kawamura
1 J. Blaswich
37 T. Trummer

Coach: T. Letsch

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
–
🔒
U
–
🔒
B
–
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

J Weinberger · 114 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.