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Premier League

Referee: Lee Probert

Watford

S T U T T

1–0

Full-time

Sunderland

S T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Sunderland

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

This season — Premier League · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 24%

29%

18%

Points per game

1,1

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

50%

54%

Both score Ø 52%

61%

43%

Average goals

2,9

2,6

Scored

1,2

0,9

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

56% Possession 44%

23 Shots 11

10 Shots on target 3

8 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 9

13 Corners 9

1 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 14. · Sunderland 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	28	22	3	3	+38	69
2	Tottenham	28	17	8	3	+34	59
3	Liverpool	30	17	8	5	+27	59
4	Man City	28	17	6	5	+24	57
5	Man United	27	14	10	3	+19	52
6	Arsenal	27	15	5	7	+22	50
7	Everton	30	14	8	8	+19	50
8	West Brom	29	12	7	10	+1	43
9	Stoke	29	9	9	11	-9	36
10	Southampton	27	9	6	12	-3	33
11	Bournemouth	29	9	6	14	-12	33
12	West Ham	29	9	6	14	-12	33
13	Burnley	29	9	5	15	-11	32
14	Watford	28	8	7	13	-15	31
15	Leicester	28	8	6	14	-14	30
16	Crystal Palace	28	8	4	16	-10	28
17	Swansea	29	8	3	18	-27	27
18	Hull	29	6	6	17	-32	24
19	Middlesbrough	28	4	10	14	-13	22
20	Sunderland	28	5	5	18	-26	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	15	13	2	0	+27	41
2	Chelsea	13	12	0	1	+28	36
3	Liverpool	15	11	3	1	+25	36
4	Everton	15	10	4	1	+24	34
5	Arsenal	13	9	2	2	+13	29
6	Burnley	14	9	2	3	+10	29
7	West Brom	15	9	2	4	+9	29
8	Man City	14	7	6	1	+10	27
9	Man United	14	6	7	1	+10	25
10	Leicester	14	7	3	4	+4	24
11	Bournemouth	15	7	3	5	+3	24
12	Stoke	15	6	5	4	+2	23
13	Watford	14	5	4	5	-2	19
14	Hull	14	5	4	5	-4	19
15	Southampton	12	5	3	4	+0	18
16	West Ham	15	5	3	7	-10	18
17	Swansea	14	5	2	7	-9	17
18	Crystal Palace	14	4	1	9	-5	13
19	Middlesbrough	14	3	4	7	-5	13
20	Sunderland	15	3	4	8	-12	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	15	10	3	2	+10	33
2	Man City	14	10	0	4	+14	30
3	Man United	13	8	3	2	+9	27
4	Liverpool	15	6	5	4	+2	23
5	Arsenal	14	6	3	5	+9	21
6	Tottenham	13	4	6	3	+7	18
7	Everton	15	4	4	7	-5	16
8	West Ham	14	4	3	7	-2	15
9	Southampton	15	4	3	8	-3	15
10	Crystal Palace	14	4	3	7	-5	15
11	West Brom	14	3	5	6	-8	14
12	Stoke	14	3	4	7	-11	13
13	Watford	14	3	3	8	-13	12
14	Swansea	15	3	1	11	-18	10
15	Middlesbrough	14	1	6	7	-8	9
16	Bournemouth	14	2	3	9	-15	9
17	Sunderland	13	2	1	10	-14	7
18	Leicester	14	1	3	10	-18	6
19	Hull	15	1	2	12	-28	5
20	Burnley	15	0	3	12	-21	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.