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Premier League

Referee: Robert Madley

Sunderland

S T S T T

1–0

Full-time

Watford

S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sunderland Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,7

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,3

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,3

This season — Premier League · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 29%

19%

38%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

56%

Both score Ø 57%

50%

63%

Average goals

2,6

3,1

Scored

0,9

1,3

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

42% Possession 58%

11 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 11

2 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sunderland 20. · Watford 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	17	14	1	2	+24	43
2	Liverpool	16	10	4	2	+20	34
3	Arsenal	16	10	4	2	+20	34
4	Man City	16	10	3	3	+15	33
5	Tottenham	16	8	6	2	+16	30
6	Man United	16	7	6	3	+5	27
7	West Brom	16	6	5	5	+4	23
8	Everton	16	6	5	5	+1	23
9	Southampton	16	5	6	5	-1	21
10	Bournemouth	16	6	3	7	-3	21
11	Watford	16	6	3	7	-7	21
12	Stoke	16	5	5	6	-5	20
13	Burnley	16	5	2	9	-11	17
14	Leicester	16	4	4	8	-6	16
15	West Ham	16	4	4	8	-13	16
16	Crystal Palace	17	4	3	10	-4	15
17	Middlesbrough	16	3	6	7	-6	15
18	Swansea	16	3	3	10	-14	12
19	Hull	16	3	3	10	-21	12
20	Sunderland	16	3	2	11	-14	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	8	7	0	1	+17	21
2	Tottenham	8	6	2	0	+13	20
3	Liverpool	7	5	2	0	+15	17
4	Arsenal	8	5	2	1	+8	17
5	Bournemouth	8	5	1	2	+6	16
6	Everton	8	4	4	0	+6	16
7	Burnley	9	5	1	3	+4	16
8	Man City	8	4	3	1	+7	15
9	Leicester	8	4	3	1	+7	15
10	Southampton	8	4	3	1	+3	15
11	West Brom	8	4	2	2	+5	14
12	Man United	8	3	4	1	+5	13
13	Watford	8	4	1	3	+1	13
14	Stoke	8	3	2	3	-2	11
15	West Ham	8	3	2	3	-6	11
16	Swansea	8	2	2	4	-3	8
17	Hull	8	2	2	4	-6	8
18	Crystal Palace	9	2	1	6	-1	7
19	Middlesbrough	8	2	1	5	-4	7
20	Sunderland	8	2	1	5	-5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	9	7	1	1	+7	22
2	Man City	8	6	0	2	+8	18
3	Arsenal	8	5	2	1	+12	17
4	Liverpool	9	5	2	2	+5	17
5	Man United	8	4	2	2	+0	14
6	Tottenham	8	2	4	2	+3	10
7	West Brom	8	2	3	3	-1	9
8	Stoke	8	2	3	3	-3	9
9	Middlesbrough	8	1	5	2	-2	8
10	Crystal Palace	8	2	2	4	-3	8
11	Watford	8	2	2	4	-8	8
12	Everton	8	2	1	5	-5	7
13	Southampton	8	1	3	4	-4	6
14	West Ham	8	1	2	5	-7	5
15	Bournemouth	8	1	2	5	-9	5
16	Sunderland	8	1	1	6	-9	4
17	Swansea	8	1	1	6	-11	4
18	Hull	8	1	1	6	-15	4
19	Leicester	8	0	1	7	-13	1
20	Burnley	7	0	1	6	-15	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.