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Championship

Referee: D Bond

Middlesbrough

U U T S T

1–0

Full-time

Sunderland

U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Sunderland

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

This season — Championship · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 29%

14%

43%

Points per game

0,9

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

71%

57%

Both score Ø 72%

86%

57%

Average goals

3,1

2,7

Scored

1,4

1,6

Conceded

1,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

39% Possession 61%

15 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 6

10 Free kicks against 11

5 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 22. · Sunderland 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	8	5	2	1	+11	17
2	Norwich	8	5	1	2	+6	16
3	Reading	8	5	0	3	-2	15
4	Bristol City	8	4	2	2	+5	14
5	Burnley	8	3	4	1	+6	13
6	Watford	8	3	4	1	+2	13
7	Blackburn	8	4	0	4	-2	12
8	Sunderland	7	3	2	2	+3	11
9	QPR	8	3	2	3	+1	11
10	Preston	8	2	5	1	+1	11
11	Blackpool	8	3	2	3	-1	11
12	Hull	8	3	2	3	-4	11
13	Rotherham	7	2	4	1	+3	10
14	Millwall	8	3	1	4	-2	10
15	Wigan	7	2	4	1	-2	10
16	West Brom	8	1	6	1	+2	9
17	Luton	8	2	3	3	-1	9
18	Swansea	8	2	3	3	-4	9
19	Stoke	8	2	2	4	-3	8
20	Birmingham	8	2	2	4	-3	8
21	Cardiff	8	2	2	4	-4	8
22	Middlesbrough	7	1	3	3	-2	6
23	Huddersfield	7	1	1	5	-4	4
24	Coventry	5	0	1	4	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Reading	4	4	0	0	+6	12
3	Norwich	4	3	1	0	+6	10
4	Bristol City	4	3	0	1	+5	9
5	Millwall	4	3	0	1	+4	9
6	Watford	4	3	0	1	+2	9
7	Hull	4	3	0	1	+1	9
8	Rotherham	4	2	2	0	+6	8
9	QPR	4	2	1	1	+2	7
10	Cardiff	4	2	1	1	+1	7
11	West Brom	4	1	3	0	+3	6
12	Burnley	4	1	3	0	+2	6
13	Blackburn	4	2	0	2	+0	6
14	Sunderland	4	1	2	1	+2	5
15	Middlesbrough	3	1	2	0	+1	5
16	Stoke	4	1	2	1	+1	5
17	Huddersfield	4	1	1	2	+0	4
18	Birmingham	4	1	1	2	-1	4
19	Blackpool	4	1	1	2	-1	4
20	Swansea	4	1	1	2	-4	4
21	Preston	4	0	3	1	-1	3
22	Wigan	4	0	3	1	-4	3
23	Luton	4	0	2	2	-2	2
24	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	4	2	2	0	+2	8
2	Burnley	4	2	1	1	+4	7
3	Wigan	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Luton	4	2	1	1	+1	7
5	Blackpool	4	2	1	1	+0	7
6	Sunderland	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Norwich	4	2	0	2	+0	6
8	Blackburn	4	2	0	2	-2	6
9	Sheffield United	4	1	2	1	+1	5
10	Bristol City	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Swansea	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Watford	4	0	4	0	+0	4
13	QPR	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Birmingham	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	West Brom	4	0	3	1	-1	3
16	Stoke	4	1	0	3	-4	3
17	Reading	4	1	0	3	-8	3
18	Rotherham	3	0	2	1	-3	2
19	Hull	4	0	2	2	-5	2
20	Middlesbrough	4	0	1	3	-3	1
21	Coventry	4	0	1	3	-5	1
22	Cardiff	4	0	1	3	-5	1
23	Millwall	4	0	1	3	-6	1
24	Huddersfield	3	0	0	3	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.