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Championship

Referee: C Kavanagh

Watford

S U U T T

2–1

Full-time

Middlesbrough

T U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

This season — Championship · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

1,8

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

50% Possession 50%

14 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 7

3 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 8. · Middlesbrough 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	7	4	2	1	+9	14
2	Norwich	7	4	1	2	+3	13
3	Burnley	7	3	3	1	+6	12
4	Reading	7	4	0	3	-3	12
5	QPR	7	3	2	2	+2	11
6	Hull	7	3	2	2	-2	11
7	Rotherham	5	2	3	0	+6	9
8	Watford	6	2	3	1	+1	9
9	Luton	7	2	3	2	+0	9
10	Blackburn	6	3	0	3	-2	9
11	West Brom	7	1	5	1	+2	8
12	Bristol City	6	2	2	2	+2	8
13	Preston	6	1	5	0	+1	8
14	Sunderland	6	2	2	2	+0	8
15	Blackpool	6	2	2	2	-1	8
16	Cardiff	7	2	2	3	-2	8
17	Stoke	6	2	1	3	-2	7
18	Wigan	6	1	4	1	-3	7
19	Millwall	7	2	1	4	-4	7
20	Middlesbrough	6	1	3	2	-1	6
21	Birmingham	7	1	2	4	-4	5
22	Swansea	6	1	2	3	-5	5
23	Huddersfield	5	1	1	3	-1	4
24	Coventry	3	0	1	2	-2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Reading	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Hull	3	3	0	0	+3	9
4	Rotherham	3	2	1	0	+6	7
5	Norwich	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	QPR	4	2	1	1	+2	7
7	Cardiff	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Bristol City	3	2	0	1	+3	6
9	Burnley	4	1	3	0	+2	6
10	Millwall	3	2	0	1	+2	6
11	Watford	3	2	0	1	+1	6
12	Blackburn	3	2	0	1	+1	6
13	West Brom	3	1	2	0	+3	5
14	Middlesbrough	3	1	2	0	+1	5
15	Huddersfield	3	1	1	1	+1	4
16	Stoke	3	1	1	1	+1	4
17	Blackpool	3	1	1	1	+0	4
18	Birmingham	4	1	1	2	-1	4
19	Preston	3	0	3	0	+0	3
20	Wigan	4	0	3	1	-4	3
21	Sunderland	3	0	2	1	-1	2
22	Luton	3	0	2	1	-1	2
23	Swansea	3	0	1	2	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Luton	4	2	1	1	+1	7
2	Burnley	3	2	0	1	+4	6
3	Sunderland	3	2	0	1	+1	6
4	Norwich	4	2	0	2	+0	6
5	Preston	3	1	2	0	+1	5
6	Wigan	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	QPR	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Swansea	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Blackpool	3	1	1	1	-1	4
10	Watford	3	0	3	0	+0	3
11	West Brom	4	0	3	1	-1	3
12	Blackburn	3	1	0	2	-3	3
13	Stoke	3	1	0	2	-3	3
14	Reading	4	1	0	3	-8	3
15	Rotherham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Bristol City	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Sheffield United	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Hull	4	0	2	2	-5	2
19	Coventry	3	0	1	2	-2	1
20	Middlesbrough	3	0	1	2	-2	1
21	Cardiff	3	0	1	2	-3	1
22	Birmingham	3	0	1	2	-3	1
23	Millwall	4	0	1	3	-6	1
24	Huddersfield	2	0	0	2	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.