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Ligue 1
Referee: J Brisard
Lyon
U S T S S
1–2
Full-time
Marseille
U S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lyon Marseille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,8
2,3
Scored
1,7
1,5
Conceded
1,2
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 31/31 matches
Win Ø 53%
45%
61%
Points per game
1,6
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
55%
55%
Both score Ø 62%
65%
58%
Average goals
2,7
2,8
Scored
1,6
1,8
Conceded
1,1
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,9
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,00 xG 1,96
60% Possession 40%
7 Shots 14
2 Shots on target 7
1 Blocked shots 2
6 Goalkeeper saves 1
5 Corners 3
2 Offside 3
11 Free kicks against 18
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lyon 7. · Marseille 3.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Paris SG 32 24 3 5 +44 +3.4 75
2 Lens 32 19 9 4 +29 +7.2 66
3 Marseille 31 19 7 5 +27 +5.8 64
4 Monaco 32 18 7 7 +20 +4.2 61
5 Lille 32 16 8 8 +17 +12.0 56
6 Rennes 32 16 5 11 +17 +1.6 53
7 Lyon 31 14 8 9 +15 +2.2 50
8 Reims 32 11 14 7 +6 +10.5 47
9 Clermont 32 13 7 12 -8 -1.7 46
10 Nice 32 11 12 9 +8 +3.5 45
11 Lorient 32 12 9 11 -1 -5.1 45
12 Toulouse 32 12 5 15 -6 +0.8 41
13 Montpellier 32 12 4 16 -4 -1.4 40
14 Auxerre 32 8 9 15 -23 -0.4 33
15 Strasbourg 32 7 11 14 -10 +0.3 32
16 Nantes 32 6 14 12 -11 -4.9 32
17 Brest 32 7 11 14 -13 -8.9 32
18 Troyes 32 4 10 18 -28 -15.5 22
19 Ajaccio 32 6 4 22 -36 -3.6 22
20 Angers 32 3 5 24 -43 -10.2 14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lyon Marseille
Sinaly Diomandé 🟨
30′
44′
C. Ünder 0–1
Half-time 0–1
55′
🟨 Sead Kolašinac
Corentin Tolisso 🟨
56′
1–1 A. Lacazette
C. Tolisso
68′
M. Gusto 🔁
↦ B. Barcola
79′
Jeffinho 🔁
↦ R. Cherki
80′
J. Lepenant 🔁
↦ Thiago Mendes
81′
83′
🔁 Vítinha
↦ R. Malinovskyi
92′
M. Gusto 2–1
own goal
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Lyon

4-3-3
1 Anthony Lopes G
2 S. Diomandé D
5 D. Lovren D
4 C. Lukeba D
3 N. Tagliafico D
23 Thiago Mendes M
88 C. Tolisso M
6 M. Caqueret M
26 B. Barcola F
10 A. Lacazette F
18 R. Cherki F
Bench (9)
27 M. Gusto
47 Jeffinho
24 J. Lepenant
9 M. Dembélé
17 J. Boateng
12 Henrique
7 A. Sarr
35 R. Riou
8 H. Aouar

Coach: L. Blanc

Marseille

3-4-2-1
16 Pau López G
5 L. Balerdi D
4 S. Gigot D
23 S. Kolašinac D
7 J. Clauss M
21 V. Rongier M
27 J. Veretout M
29 I. Kaboré M
17 C. Ünder F
18 R. Malinovskyi F
70 A. Sánchez F
Bench (7)
9 Vítinha
36 Rubén Blanco
47 B. Elmaz
3 E. Bailly
33 F. Mughe
6 M. Guendouzi
99 C. Mbemba

Coach: I. Tudor

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,48
U
3,66
B ✓
2,67
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,67
U2,5
2,22
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

J Brisard · 168 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.