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Ligue 1

Referee: B Bastien

Lyon

S S T S T

1–0

Full-time

Marseille

U S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lyon Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 29%

21%

37%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

53%

47%

Both score Ø 50%

47%

53%

Average goals

2,7

2,6

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,43 xG 0,33

37% Possession 63%

12 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 2

0 Offside 5

14 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lyon 15. · Marseille 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	20	14	5	1	+31	+18.5	47
2	Nice	20	11	6	3	+9	+9.6	39
3	Brest	20	10	6	4	+12	+5.6	36
4	Lille	20	9	8	3	+14	+11.0	35
5	Monaco	20	10	5	5	+9	+5.1	35
6	Lens	20	9	5	6	+5	+1.7	32
7	Reims	20	9	3	8	+0	+4.4	30
8	Marseille	19	7	8	4	+7	+15.6	29
9	Rennes	20	7	7	6	+5	+8.0	28
10	Strasbourg	20	6	7	7	-5	-2.5	25
11	Le Havre	20	5	9	6	-1	-7.5	24
12	Montpellier	20	4	8	8	-5	-0.4	20
13	Toulouse	20	4	8	8	-8	-10.6	20
14	Nantes	20	5	4	11	-11	-8.3	19
15	Lyon	19	4	4	11	-14	-6.3	16
16	Metz	20	4	4	12	-14	-15.1	16
17	Lorient	20	3	7	10	-16	-13.2	16
18	Clermont	20	3	6	11	-18	-15.5	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nice	10	7	3	0	+10	+8.3	24
2	Paris SG	10	7	2	1	+17	+11.6	23
3	Lille	10	7	2	1	+14	+12.1	23
4	Marseille	10	6	4	0	+12	+12.4	22
5	Brest	10	5	4	1	+10	+10.0	19
6	Monaco	10	6	1	3	+8	+5.6	19
7	Rennes	11	5	3	3	+7	+8.4	18
8	Lens	9	5	2	2	+6	+6.3	17
9	Reims	10	5	1	4	+0	+5.4	16
10	Strasbourg	10	4	3	3	+2	+2.9	15
11	Le Havre	9	4	2	3	+3	+3.6	14
12	Nantes	11	3	3	5	-1	-1.6	12
13	Montpellier	10	1	7	2	-1	+4.5	10
14	Lorient	10	2	4	4	-3	-5.1	10
15	Lyon	10	2	3	5	-6	+0.1	9
16	Toulouse	9	1	5	3	-1	+0.5	8
17	Metz	10	1	3	6	-4	-2.2	6
18	Clermont	10	1	3	6	-9	-5.1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	7	3	0	+14	+6.9	24
2	Brest	10	5	2	3	+2	-4.3	17
3	Monaco	10	4	4	2	+1	-0.6	16
4	Lens	11	4	3	4	-1	-4.6	15
5	Nice	10	4	3	3	-1	+1.2	15
6	Reims	10	4	2	4	+0	-1.0	14
7	Lille	10	2	6	2	+0	-1.0	12
8	Toulouse	11	3	3	5	-7	-11.1	12
9	Rennes	9	2	4	3	-2	-0.4	10
10	Montpellier	10	3	1	6	-4	-4.9	10
11	Le Havre	11	1	7	3	-4	-11.1	10
12	Strasbourg	10	2	4	4	-7	-5.4	10
13	Metz	10	3	1	6	-10	-12.9	10
14	Clermont	10	2	3	5	-9	-10.5	9
15	Marseille	9	1	4	4	-5	+3.2	7
16	Lyon	9	2	1	6	-8	-6.4	7
17	Nantes	9	2	1	6	-10	-6.7	7
18	Lorient	10	1	3	6	-13	-8.0	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.