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La Liga

Referee: Francisco Hernández

Real Madrid

S S S T S

2–1

Full-time

Vallecano

S S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Vallecano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,5

1,5

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 49%

62%

35%

Points per game

2,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

58%

38%

Both score Ø 58%

54%

62%

Average goals

3,1

2,1

Scored

2,1

1,1

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,60 xG 1,02

46% Possession 54%

10 Shots 20

5 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 6

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 6

3 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 3. · Vallecano 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	26	18	3	5	+46	+33.1	57
2	Ath Madrid	27	16	8	3	+26	+19.7	56
3	Real Madrid	26	16	6	4	+30	+24.2	54
4	Ath Bilbao	26	13	9	4	+21	+16.7	48
5	Villarreal	26	12	8	6	+12	+17.4	44
6	Betis	26	10	8	8	+1	+6.5	38
7	Vallecano	26	9	9	8	+1	+2.6	36
8	Celta	27	10	6	11	-1	+8.3	36
9	Mallorca	26	10	6	10	-7	-0.8	36
10	Sociedad	26	10	4	12	-4	-0.6	34
11	Getafe	27	8	9	10	+1	-6.2	33
12	Osasuna	26	7	12	7	-5	-7.7	33
13	Sevilla	26	8	9	9	-5	-6.9	33
14	Girona	26	9	5	12	-5	-3.1	32
15	Espanol	25	7	6	12	-12	-20.0	27
16	Valencia	27	6	9	12	-15	-8.2	27
17	Leganes	27	6	9	12	-16	-21.9	27
18	Alaves	27	6	8	13	-10	-2.8	26
19	Las Palmas	26	6	6	14	-14	-24.9	24
20	Valladolid	27	4	4	19	-44	-25.2	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	14	10	4	0	+17	+18.3	34
2	Real Madrid	12	10	1	1	+20	+18.9	31
3	Celta	14	9	2	3	+10	+6.0	29
4	Ath Bilbao	13	8	4	1	+18	+12.5	28
5	Barcelona	12	9	0	3	+24	+23.5	27
6	Osasuna	14	6	6	2	+5	+1.7	24
7	Betis	13	6	5	2	+6	+13.0	23
8	Espanol	13	6	4	3	+3	-4.8	22
9	Valencia	14	6	3	5	+2	+2.4	21
10	Villarreal	12	5	5	2	+9	+8.3	20
11	Girona	13	6	2	5	+4	+6.0	20
12	Sociedad	13	6	2	5	+2	+4.1	20
13	Mallorca	14	5	5	4	-1	-2.6	20
14	Getafe	14	4	7	3	+3	+2.3	19
15	Vallecano	13	5	4	4	+1	+8.5	19
16	Sevilla	13	5	4	4	-3	-0.1	19
17	Leganes	13	5	2	6	-6	-7.2	17
18	Alaves	13	4	4	5	-2	-0.2	16
19	Las Palmas	13	3	4	6	-4	-6.6	13
20	Valladolid	13	3	4	6	-12	-6.2	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	14	9	3	2	+22	+9.6	30
2	Villarreal	14	7	3	4	+3	+9.1	24
3	Real Madrid	14	6	5	3	+10	+5.2	23
4	Ath Madrid	13	6	4	3	+9	+1.4	22
5	Ath Bilbao	13	5	5	3	+3	+4.2	20
6	Vallecano	13	4	5	4	+0	-6.0	17
7	Mallorca	12	5	1	6	-6	+1.8	16
8	Betis	13	4	3	6	-5	-6.5	15
9	Sevilla	13	3	5	5	-2	-6.8	14
10	Getafe	13	4	2	7	-2	-8.5	14
11	Sociedad	13	4	2	7	-6	-4.6	14
12	Girona	13	3	3	7	-9	-9.1	12
13	Las Palmas	13	3	2	8	-10	-18.3	11
14	Alaves	14	2	4	8	-8	-2.6	10
15	Leganes	14	1	7	6	-10	-14.7	10
16	Osasuna	12	1	6	5	-10	-9.4	9
17	Celta	13	1	4	8	-11	+2.3	7
18	Valencia	13	0	6	7	-17	-10.5	6
19	Espanol	12	1	2	9	-15	-15.2	5
20	Valladolid	14	1	0	13	-32	-19.0	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.