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La Liga

Referee: Iosu Galech Apezteguia

Villarreal

T U T S S

4–0

Full-time

Vallecano

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Vallecano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,3

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,7

3,0

Scored

2,2

2,5

Conceded

1,5

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 50%

60%

40%

Points per game

2,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

50%

30%

Both score Ø 45%

50%

40%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,02 xG 1,02

47% Possession 53%

16 Shots 13

7 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 3. · Vallecano 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	10	9	0	1	+12	+12.5	27
2	Barcelona	10	7	1	2	+13	+6.4	22
3	Villarreal	10	6	2	2	+8	+3.6	20
4	Ath Madrid	10	5	4	1	+8	+5.9	19
5	Espanol	10	5	3	2	+3	+7.5	18
6	Getafe	11	5	2	4	-1	-3.4	17
7	Betis	10	4	4	2	+3	+4.2	16
8	Vallecano	10	4	2	4	+2	+1.7	14
9	Elche	10	3	5	2	+1	-0.8	14
10	Ath Bilbao	10	4	2	4	-1	+4.4	14
11	Sevilla	10	4	1	5	+1	-7.6	13
12	Alaves	10	3	3	4	+0	+1.3	12
13	Celta	10	1	7	2	-2	-0.8	10
14	Osasuna	10	3	1	6	-3	-2.4	10
15	Levante	10	2	3	5	-4	-0.5	9
16	Mallorca	10	2	3	5	-4	-8.7	9
17	Sociedad	10	2	3	5	-4	-0.4	9
18	Valencia	10	2	3	5	-6	-3.8	9
19	Oviedo	10	2	1	7	-12	-10.7	7
20	Girona	11	1	4	6	-14	-8.5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	5	5	0	0	+7	+7.7	15
2	Villarreal	5	4	1	0	+9	+3.7	13
3	Ath Madrid	5	4	1	0	+7	+6.3	13
4	Espanol	6	4	1	1	+3	+4.0	13
5	Barcelona	4	4	0	0	+11	+6.9	12
6	Elche	5	3	2	0	+4	+3.0	11
7	Osasuna	5	3	1	1	+3	+1.0	10
8	Ath Bilbao	6	3	1	2	+1	+6.0	10
9	Betis	5	3	0	2	+2	+2.5	9
10	Alaves	5	2	2	1	+2	+3.1	8
11	Getafe	5	2	2	1	+2	-3.1	8
12	Valencia	5	2	1	2	+2	+2.4	7
13	Sociedad	5	2	1	2	+0	+2.5	7
14	Mallorca	5	1	3	1	-2	-4.2	6
15	Vallecano	4	1	2	1	+0	+1.9	5
16	Celta	6	0	5	1	-2	+2.6	5
17	Girona	6	1	2	3	-7	-4.3	5
18	Sevilla	5	1	1	3	-1	-1.8	4
19	Oviedo	5	1	0	4	-8	-7.5	3
20	Levante	4	0	1	3	-7	-4.2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	5	4	0	1	+5	+4.8	12
2	Barcelona	6	3	1	2	+2	-0.4	10
3	Vallecano	6	3	0	3	+2	-0.2	9
4	Sevilla	5	3	0	2	+2	-5.9	9
5	Getafe	6	3	0	3	-3	-0.3	9
6	Levante	6	2	2	2	+3	+3.7	8
7	Betis	5	1	4	0	+1	+1.8	7
8	Villarreal	5	2	1	2	-1	-0.1	7
9	Ath Madrid	5	1	3	1	+1	-0.4	6
10	Celta	4	1	2	1	+0	-3.4	5
11	Espanol	4	1	2	1	+0	+3.5	5
12	Alaves	5	1	1	3	-2	-1.8	4
13	Ath Bilbao	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.5	4
14	Oviedo	5	1	1	3	-4	-3.2	4
15	Mallorca	5	1	0	4	-2	-4.5	3
16	Elche	5	0	3	2	-3	-3.8	3
17	Sociedad	5	0	2	3	-4	-2.8	2
18	Girona	5	0	2	3	-7	-4.2	2
19	Valencia	5	0	2	3	-8	-6.3	2
20	Osasuna	5	0	0	5	-6	-3.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.