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Champions League
Referee: I Kovacs
Liverpool
T S T T S
1–0
Full-time
Real Madrid
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
33%
100%
Points per game
1,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,7
3,0
Scored
1,8
2,7
Conceded
1,8
0,3
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+2,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 84%
67%
100%
Points per game
2,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
4,0
3,0
Scored
2,7
2,7
Conceded
1,3
0,3
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+2,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,51 xG 0,45
39% Possession 61%
17 Shots 8
9 Shots on target 2
5 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 8
4 Corners 2
2 Offside 0
16 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

27. Nov -24 Liverpool – Real Madrid 2–0 15. Mar -23 Real Madrid – Liverpool 1–0 21. Feb -23 Liverpool – Real Madrid 2–5

Match report

Liverpool Real Madrid
23′
🟨 Vinícius Júnior
Dominik Szoboszlai ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
32′
Half-time 0–0
46′
🟨 Dean Huijsen
Alexis Mac Allister 🟨
52′
60′
🟨 Jude Bellingham
1–0 A. Mac Allister ⚽
D. Szoboszlai
61′
69′
🔁 Rodrygo
↦ E. Camavinga
C. Jones 🔁
↦ A. Mac Allister
78′
C. Gakpo 🔁
↦ H. Ekitike
78′
81′
🔁 T. Alexander-Arnold
↦ A. Guler
M. Kerkez 🔁
↦ A. Robertson
88′
F. Chiesa 🔁
↦ F. Wirtz
88′
90′
🔁 B. Diaz
↦ F. Valverde
95′
🟨 Álvaro Carreras
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Liverpool

4-2-3-1
25 G. Mamardashvili G
12 C. Bradley D
5 I. Konate D
4 V. van Dijk D
26 A. Robertson D
38 R. Gravenberch M
10 A. Mac Allister M
11 M. Salah M
8 D. Szoboszlai M
7 F. Wirtz M
22 H. Ekitike F
Bench (9)
28 F. Woodman
74 K. Misciur
2 J. Gomez
3 W. Endo
6 M. Kerkez
14 F. Chiesa
17 C. Jones
18 C. Gakpo
73 R. Ngumoha

Coach: Arne Slot

Real Madrid

4-1-4-1
1 T. Courtois G
8 F. Valverde D
3 Eder Militao D
24 D. Huijsen D
18 A. Carreras D
14 A. Tchouameni M
6 E. Camavinga M
15 A. Guler M
5 J. Bellingham M
7 Vinicius Junior M
10 K. Mbappe F
Bench (11)
13 A. Lunin
26 Fran
9 Endrick
11 Rodrygo
12 T. Alexander-Arnold
16 G. Garcia
17 R. Asencio
19 D. Ceballos
20 F. Garcia
21 B. Diaz
23 F. Mendy

Coach: Alvaro Arbeloa

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

I Kovacs · 37 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.