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La Liga

Referee: Mateo Busquets Ferrer

Real Madrid

S S S S S

4–0

Full-time

Valencia

T T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Valencia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

2,3

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 55%

90%

20%

Points per game

2,7

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

70%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

60%

40%

Average goals

3,2

2,6

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

2,71 xG 0,49

65% Possession 35%

21 Shots 4

11 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

7 Corners 1

2 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 1. · Valencia 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	10	9	0	1	+12	+12.5	27
2	Villarreal	11	7	2	2	+12	+5.6	23
3	Barcelona	10	7	1	2	+13	+6.4	22
4	Ath Madrid	11	6	4	1	+11	+8.9	22
5	Espanol	10	5	3	2	+3	+7.5	18
6	Getafe	11	5	2	4	-1	-3.4	17
7	Betis	10	4	4	2	+3	+4.2	16
8	Elche	10	3	5	2	+1	-0.8	14
9	Vallecano	11	4	2	5	-2	-0.3	14
10	Ath Bilbao	11	4	2	5	-2	+3.8	14
11	Sevilla	11	4	1	6	-2	-10.7	13
12	Alaves	10	3	3	4	+0	+1.3	12
13	Sociedad	11	3	3	5	-3	+0.3	12
14	Celta	10	1	7	2	-2	-0.8	10
15	Osasuna	10	3	1	6	-3	-2.4	10
16	Levante	10	2	3	5	-4	-0.5	9
17	Mallorca	10	2	3	5	-4	-8.7	9
18	Valencia	10	2	3	5	-6	-3.8	9
19	Oviedo	10	2	1	7	-12	-10.7	7
20	Girona	11	1	4	6	-14	-8.5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Villarreal	6	5	1	0	+13	+5.7	16
2	Ath Madrid	6	5	1	0	+10	+9.3	16
3	Real Madrid	5	5	0	0	+7	+7.7	15
4	Espanol	6	4	1	1	+3	+4.0	13
5	Barcelona	4	4	0	0	+11	+6.9	12
6	Elche	5	3	2	0	+4	+3.0	11
7	Osasuna	5	3	1	1	+3	+1.0	10
8	Sociedad	6	3	1	2	+1	+3.1	10
9	Ath Bilbao	6	3	1	2	+1	+6.0	10
10	Betis	5	3	0	2	+2	+2.5	9
11	Alaves	5	2	2	1	+2	+3.1	8
12	Getafe	5	2	2	1	+2	-3.1	8
13	Valencia	5	2	1	2	+2	+2.4	7
14	Mallorca	5	1	3	1	-2	-4.2	6
15	Vallecano	4	1	2	1	+0	+1.9	5
16	Celta	6	0	5	1	-2	+2.6	5
17	Girona	6	1	2	3	-7	-4.3	5
18	Sevilla	5	1	1	3	-1	-1.8	4
19	Oviedo	5	1	0	4	-8	-7.5	3
20	Levante	4	0	1	3	-7	-4.2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	5	4	0	1	+5	+4.8	12
2	Barcelona	6	3	1	2	+2	-0.4	10
3	Sevilla	6	3	0	3	-1	-8.9	9
4	Vallecano	7	3	0	4	-2	-2.2	9
5	Getafe	6	3	0	3	-3	-0.3	9
6	Levante	6	2	2	2	+3	+3.7	8
7	Betis	5	1	4	0	+1	+1.8	7
8	Villarreal	5	2	1	2	-1	-0.1	7
9	Ath Madrid	5	1	3	1	+1	-0.4	6
10	Celta	4	1	2	1	+0	-3.4	5
11	Espanol	4	1	2	1	+0	+3.5	5
12	Alaves	5	1	1	3	-2	-1.8	4
13	Ath Bilbao	5	1	1	3	-3	-2.2	4
14	Oviedo	5	1	1	3	-4	-3.2	4
15	Mallorca	5	1	0	4	-2	-4.5	3
16	Elche	5	0	3	2	-3	-3.8	3
17	Sociedad	5	0	2	3	-4	-2.8	2
18	Girona	5	0	2	3	-7	-4.2	2
19	Valencia	5	0	2	3	-8	-6.3	2
20	Osasuna	5	0	0	5	-6	-3.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.