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La Liga

Referee: César Soto Grado

Real Madrid

T S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Barcelona

S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Barcelona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

3,8

4,2

Scored

2,7

2,5

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 84%

89%

78%

Points per game

2,7

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 78%

67%

89%

Both score Ø 62%

56%

67%

Average goals

3,2

3,8

Scored

2,2

2,7

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

3,63 xG 1,03

32% Possession 68%

23 Shots 15

10 Shots on target 6

7 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 9

12 Corners 4

5 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 9

5 Yellow cards 5

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Real Madrid 1. · Barcelona 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	9	8	0	1	+11	+9.9	24
2	Barcelona	9	7	1	1	+14	+9.0	22
3	Villarreal	10	6	2	2	+8	+3.6	20
4	Espanol	10	5	3	2	+3	+7.5	18
5	Ath Madrid	9	4	4	1	+6	+6.3	16
6	Betis	9	4	4	1	+5	+3.7	16
7	Elche	10	3	5	2	+1	-0.8	14
8	Ath Bilbao	10	4	2	4	-1	+4.4	14
9	Getafe	10	4	2	4	-2	-2.9	14
10	Sevilla	10	4	1	5	+1	-7.6	13
11	Alaves	9	3	3	3	+1	+1.6	12
12	Vallecano	9	3	2	4	+1	+1.3	11
13	Osasuna	9	3	1	5	-2	-2.8	10
14	Levante	10	2	3	5	-4	-0.5	9
15	Mallorca	10	2	3	5	-4	-8.7	9
16	Sociedad	10	2	3	5	-4	-0.4	9
17	Valencia	10	2	3	5	-6	-3.8	9
18	Celta	9	0	7	2	-3	-0.4	7
19	Oviedo	10	2	1	7	-12	-10.7	7
20	Girona	10	1	4	5	-13	-9.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Villarreal	5	4	1	0	+9	+3.7	13
2	Ath Madrid	5	4	1	0	+7	+6.3	13
3	Espanol	6	4	1	1	+3	+4.0	13
4	Barcelona	4	4	0	0	+11	+6.9	12
5	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+6	+5.1	12
6	Elche	5	3	2	0	+4	+3.0	11
7	Osasuna	4	3	1	0	+4	+0.6	10
8	Ath Bilbao	6	3	1	2	+1	+6.0	10
9	Betis	4	3	0	1	+4	+2.0	9
10	Alaves	5	2	2	1	+2	+3.1	8
11	Valencia	5	2	1	2	+2	+2.4	7
12	Sociedad	5	2	1	2	+0	+2.5	7
13	Mallorca	5	1	3	1	-2	-4.2	6
14	Getafe	4	1	2	1	+1	-2.5	5
15	Celta	6	0	5	1	-2	+2.6	5
16	Girona	6	1	2	3	-7	-4.3	5
17	Sevilla	5	1	1	3	-1	-1.8	4
18	Oviedo	5	1	0	4	-8	-7.5	3
19	Vallecano	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.6	2
20	Levante	4	0	1	3	-7	-4.2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	5	4	0	1	+5	+4.8	12
2	Barcelona	5	3	1	1	+3	+2.2	10
3	Vallecano	6	3	0	3	+2	-0.2	9
4	Sevilla	5	3	0	2	+2	-5.9	9
5	Getafe	6	3	0	3	-3	-0.3	9
6	Levante	6	2	2	2	+3	+3.7	8
7	Betis	5	1	4	0	+1	+1.8	7
8	Villarreal	5	2	1	2	-1	-0.1	7
9	Espanol	4	1	2	1	+0	+3.5	5
10	Alaves	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.4	4
11	Ath Bilbao	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.5	4
12	Oviedo	5	1	1	3	-4	-3.2	4
13	Ath Madrid	4	0	3	1	-1	+0.0	3
14	Mallorca	5	1	0	4	-2	-4.5	3
15	Elche	5	0	3	2	-3	-3.8	3
16	Celta	3	0	2	1	-1	-3.0	2
17	Sociedad	5	0	2	3	-4	-2.8	2
18	Girona	4	0	2	2	-6	-4.8	2
19	Valencia	5	0	2	3	-8	-6.3	2
20	Osasuna	5	0	0	5	-6	-3.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.