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Bundesliga

Referee: S Jablonski

Freiburg

S S U S U

2–1

Full-time

Mainz

S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

0,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,7

This season — Bundesliga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 50%

57%

43%

Points per game

2,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

43%

57%

Both score Ø 43%

29%

57%

Average goals

2,1

2,4

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

0,7

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

53% Possession 47%

13 Shots 17

6 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 5

0 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 4. · Mainz 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Union Berlin	7	5	2	0	+11	17
2	Bayern Munich	8	4	3	1	+17	15
3	Dortmund	7	5	0	2	+2	15
4	Freiburg	7	4	2	1	+5	14
5	Hoffenheim	7	4	1	2	+5	13
6	M'gladbach	7	3	3	1	+5	12
7	Ein Frankfurt	7	3	2	2	+1	11
8	Mainz	7	3	2	2	-3	11
9	FC Koln	7	2	4	1	+3	10
10	Werder Bremen	7	2	3	2	+1	9
11	Augsburg	7	3	0	4	-5	9
12	RB Leipzig	7	2	2	3	-3	8
13	Hertha	7	1	3	3	-2	6
14	Schalke 04	7	1	3	3	-6	6
15	Stuttgart	7	0	5	2	-3	5
16	Leverkusen	8	1	2	5	-7	5
17	Wolfsburg	7	1	2	4	-7	5
18	Bochum	7	0	1	6	-14	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hoffenheim	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	Union Berlin	4	3	1	0	+5	10
3	M'gladbach	4	3	0	1	+5	9
4	Dortmund	4	3	0	1	+2	9
5	Bayern Munich	4	2	2	0	+6	8
6	RB Leipzig	3	2	1	0	+5	7
7	FC Koln	3	1	1	1	+1	4
8	Freiburg	3	1	1	1	-1	4
9	Ein Frankfurt	4	1	1	2	-2	4
10	Schalke 04	3	1	1	1	-3	4
11	Augsburg	4	1	0	3	-6	3
12	Hertha	3	0	2	1	-1	2
13	Wolfsburg	3	0	2	1	-2	2
14	Stuttgart	4	0	2	2	-3	2
15	Mainz	3	0	2	1	-3	2
16	Werder Bremen	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Leverkusen	4	0	1	3	-5	1
18	Bochum	4	0	1	3	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Freiburg	4	3	1	0	+6	10
2	Mainz	4	3	0	1	+0	9
3	Werder Bremen	4	2	2	0	+3	8
4	Bayern Munich	4	2	1	1	+11	7
5	Union Berlin	3	2	1	0	+6	7
6	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	1	0	+3	7
7	FC Koln	4	1	3	0	+2	6
8	Augsburg	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	Dortmund	3	2	0	1	+0	6
10	Hertha	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Leverkusen	4	1	1	2	-2	4
12	Stuttgart	3	0	3	0	+0	3
13	Hoffenheim	3	1	0	2	+0	3
14	M'gladbach	3	0	3	0	+0	3
15	Wolfsburg	4	1	0	3	-5	3
16	Schalke 04	4	0	2	2	-3	2
17	RB Leipzig	4	0	1	3	-8	1
18	Bochum	3	0	0	3	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.