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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fábio Veríssimo

Chaves

U S U T T

1–1

Full-time

Estoril

U S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chaves Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 36%

29%

43%

Points per game

1,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 29%

29%

Both score Ø 36%

43%

29%

Average goals

2,0

2,1

Scored

0,9

1,3

Conceded

1,1

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

45% Possession 55%

12 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 8

2 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chaves 11. · Estoril 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	7	7	0	0	+16	21
2	Sp Braga	8	6	1	1	+15	19
3	Porto	8	6	1	1	+14	19
4	Portimonense	8	5	0	3	+1	15
5	Boavista	7	5	0	2	+0	15
6	Casa Pia	7	4	2	1	+4	14
7	Sp Lisbon	8	4	1	3	+5	13
8	Estoril	7	3	2	2	+3	11
9	Guimaraes	7	3	1	3	+0	10
10	Gil Vicente	8	2	3	3	-3	9
11	Chaves	7	2	2	3	-2	8
12	Vizela	8	2	2	4	-3	8
13	Arouca	7	2	2	3	-9	8
14	Rio Ave	7	1	3	3	-3	6
15	Santa Clara	7	1	2	4	-3	5
16	Famalicao	7	1	1	5	-7	4
17	Pacos Ferreira	7	0	1	6	-10	1
18	Maritimo	7	0	0	7	-18	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	4	4	0	0	+13	12
2	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+11	12
3	Sp Braga	4	3	1	0	+8	10
4	Sp Lisbon	4	3	0	1	+7	9
5	Portimonense	4	3	0	1	+2	9
6	Boavista	4	3	0	1	+0	9
7	Casa Pia	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	Estoril	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Santa Clara	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Gil Vicente	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Vizela	4	1	1	2	-1	4
13	Arouca	4	1	1	2	-6	4
14	Rio Ave	3	1	0	2	+0	3
15	Famalicao	3	1	0	2	-3	3
16	Chaves	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Maritimo	3	0	0	3	-3	0
18	Pacos Ferreira	3	0	0	3	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	4	3	0	1	+7	9
2	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Casa Pia	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Porto	4	2	1	1	+1	7
5	Estoril	3	2	0	1	+3	6
6	Boavista	3	2	0	1	+0	6
7	Chaves	4	2	0	2	-1	6
8	Portimonense	4	2	0	2	-1	6
9	Guimaraes	4	1	1	2	-1	4
10	Sp Lisbon	4	1	1	2	-2	4
11	Gil Vicente	4	1	1	2	-2	4
12	Vizela	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	Arouca	3	1	1	1	-3	4
14	Rio Ave	4	0	3	1	-3	3
15	Pacos Ferreira	4	0	1	3	-3	1
16	Famalicao	4	0	1	3	-4	1
17	Santa Clara	3	0	0	3	-3	0
18	Maritimo	4	0	0	4	-15	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.