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Ligue 2

Referee: W Delajod

Metz

T S U T T

1–0

Full-time

Pau FC

T U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Metz Pau FC

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,0

2,3

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

2,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

This season — Ligue 2 · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 28%

33%

22%

Points per game

1,2

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

56%

44%

Both score Ø 44%

44%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

48% Possession 52%

12 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 5

0 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Metz 10. · Pau FC 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sochaux	9	6	1	2	+12	19
2	Le Havre	9	5	3	1	+11	18
3	Bordeaux	9	5	2	2	+8	17
4	Amiens	9	5	2	2	+3	17
5	Guingamp	8	5	1	2	+6	16
6	Caen	9	4	3	2	+5	15
7	Valenciennes	9	3	4	2	+0	13
8	Grenoble	10	3	4	3	-2	13
9	Bastia	9	4	1	4	-3	13
10	Metz	9	3	2	4	+2	11
11	St Etienne	10	2	5	3	-1	11
12	Dijon	9	3	2	4	-3	11
13	Paris FC	9	2	4	3	-2	10
14	Laval	9	3	1	5	-3	10
15	Pau FC	9	2	4	3	-6	10
16	Annecy	9	2	3	4	-2	9
17	Rodez	8	2	3	3	-4	9
18	Nimes	9	2	2	5	-4	8
19	Quevilly Rouen	9	1	4	4	-7	7
20	Niort	9	2	1	6	-10	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Amiens	5	4	1	0	+7	13
2	Sochaux	5	3	1	1	+7	10
3	Caen	4	3	1	0	+6	10
4	Bordeaux	5	3	1	1	+5	10
5	Grenoble	5	3	1	1	+2	10
6	Le Havre	5	2	3	0	+3	9
7	Bastia	5	3	0	2	+1	9
8	Valenciennes	4	2	2	0	+2	8
9	St Etienne	5	2	2	1	+1	8
10	Guingamp	4	2	1	1	+4	7
11	Metz	5	2	1	2	+1	7
12	Nimes	4	2	1	1	+1	7
13	Dijon	5	2	1	2	-2	7
14	Quevilly Rouen	5	1	3	1	-1	6
15	Pau FC	4	1	2	1	-2	5
16	Annecy	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Paris FC	4	1	1	2	-2	4
18	Niort	4	1	0	3	-4	3
19	Rodez	4	0	2	2	-6	2
20	Laval	4	0	1	3	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Le Havre	4	3	0	1	+8	9
2	Sochaux	4	3	0	1	+5	9
3	Guingamp	4	3	0	1	+2	9
4	Laval	5	3	0	2	+1	9
5	Bordeaux	4	2	1	1	+3	7
6	Rodez	4	2	1	1	+2	7
7	Paris FC	5	1	3	1	+0	6
8	Caen	5	1	2	2	-1	5
9	Annecy	5	1	2	2	-1	5
10	Valenciennes	5	1	2	2	-2	5
11	Pau FC	5	1	2	2	-4	5
12	Metz	4	1	1	2	+1	4
13	Dijon	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Bastia	4	1	1	2	-4	4
15	Amiens	4	1	1	2	-4	4
16	Niort	5	1	1	3	-6	4
17	St Etienne	5	0	3	2	-2	3
18	Grenoble	5	0	3	2	-4	3
19	Nimes	5	0	1	4	-5	1
20	Quevilly Rouen	4	0	1	3	-6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.