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Ligue 1
Referee: J Brisard
Paris SG
S S S S S
2–1
Full-time
Nice
T U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Nice
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
100%
33%
Points per game
3,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
67%
17%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,5
1,7
Scored
2,2
0,8
Conceded
0,3
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+0,0
This season — Ligue 1 · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 57%
88%
25%
Points per game
2,8
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 44%
63%
25%
Both score Ø 38%
38%
38%
Average goals
3,8
1,8
Scored
3,3
0,6
Conceded
0,5
1,1
Goal diff per game
+2,8
-0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

57% Possession 43%
12 Shots 4
4 Shots on target 1
3 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 0
3 Offside 2
16 Free kicks against 9
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Paris SG 2. · Nice 13.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Marseille 9 7 2 0 +14 23
2 Paris SG 8 7 1 0 +22 22
3 Lorient 8 6 1 1 +5 19
4 Lens 8 5 3 0 +9 18
5 Rennes 9 4 3 2 +8 15
6 Monaco 8 4 2 2 +1 14
7 Lyon 8 4 1 3 +6 13
8 Lille 8 4 1 3 +0 13
9 Montpellier 8 4 0 4 +4 12
10 Troyes 8 3 1 4 -2 10
11 Clermont 8 3 1 4 -4 10
12 Toulouse 8 2 2 4 -4 8
13 Nice 8 2 2 4 -4 8
14 Angers 9 2 2 5 -12 8
15 Nantes 8 1 4 3 -3 7
16 Auxerre 8 2 1 5 -11 7
17 Reims 8 1 3 4 -7 6
18 Strasbourg 9 0 5 4 -5 5
19 Brest 8 1 2 5 -10 5
20 Ajaccio 8 1 1 6 -7 4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Paris SG Nice
27′
🟨 Dante
1–0 L. Messi
29′
Half-time 1–1
47′
G. Laborde 1–1
Nuno Mendes 🔁
↦ Juan Bernat
59′
K. Mbappé 🔁
↦ H. Ekitike
59′
62′
🔁 K. Thuram
↦ A. Ramsey
62′
🔁 N. Pépé
↦ R. Barkley
Renato Sanches 🔁
↦ Fabián Ruiz
72′
76′
🔁 J. Lotomba
↦ Y. Atal
76′
🔁 A. Beka Beka
↦ M. Lemina
83′
🔁 A. Delort
↦ G. Laborde
2–1 K. Mbappé
N. Mukiele
83′
Danilo Pereira 🔁
↦ Renato Sanches
88′
Pablo Sarabia 🔁
↦ L. Messi
88′
Pablo Sarabia 🟨
91′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Paris SG

3-4-2-1
99 G. Donnarumma G
26 N. Mukiele D
5 Marquinhos D
4 Sergio Ramos D
2 A. Hakimi M
17 Vitinha M
8 Fabián Ruiz M
14 Juan Bernat M
30 L. Messi F
10 Neymar F
44 H. Ekitike F
Bench (9)
25 Nuno Mendes
7 K. Mbappé
18 Renato Sanches
15 Danilo Pereira
19 Pablo Sarabia
28 Carlos Soler
1 K. Navas
33 W. Zaïre-Emery
31 E. Bitshiabu

Coach: C. Galtier

Nice

5-4-1
1 K. Schmeichel G
20 Y. Atal D
8 P. Rosario D
4 Dante D
42 M. Viti D
26 M. Bard D
11 R. Barkley M
16 A. Ramsey M
99 M. Lemina M
10 S. Diop M
24 G. Laborde F
Bench (9)
19 K. Thuram
29 N. Pépé
23 J. Lotomba
21 A. Beka Beka
7 A. Delort
14 B. Brahimi
33 A. Mendy
90 M. Bułka
5 M. Sørensen

Coach: L. Favre

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,17
U
8,29
B
15,35
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,33
U2,5
3,34
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

J Brisard · 168 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.