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Bundesliga

Referee: F Willenborg

Mainz

U S T S T

1–1

Full-time

Hertha

U T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Hertha

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

This season — Bundesliga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

56% Possession 44%

11 Shots 4

2 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 3

4 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 6. · Hertha 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Union Berlin	6	4	2	0	+9	14
2	Freiburg	6	4	1	1	+5	13
3	Bayern Munich	6	3	3	0	+14	12
4	Hoffenheim	6	4	0	2	+5	12
5	Dortmund	6	4	0	2	+1	12
6	Mainz	6	3	1	2	-3	10
7	FC Koln	6	2	3	1	+3	9
8	M'gladbach	6	2	3	1	+2	9
9	Werder Bremen	6	2	2	2	+1	8
10	RB Leipzig	6	2	2	2	+0	8
11	Ein Frankfurt	6	2	2	2	-1	8
12	Schalke 04	6	1	3	2	-5	6
13	Augsburg	6	2	0	4	-6	6
14	Stuttgart	6	0	5	1	-1	5
15	Hertha	6	1	2	3	-2	5
16	Wolfsburg	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Leverkusen	6	1	1	4	-3	4
18	Bochum	6	0	0	6	-14	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hoffenheim	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	RB Leipzig	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Union Berlin	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	M'gladbach	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	Dortmund	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Bayern Munich	3	1	2	0	+2	5
7	FC Koln	3	1	1	1	+1	4
8	Freiburg	3	1	1	1	-1	4
9	Ein Frankfurt	4	1	1	2	-2	4
10	Schalke 04	3	1	1	1	-3	4
11	Hertha	3	0	2	1	-1	2
12	Stuttgart	3	0	2	1	-1	2
13	Wolfsburg	3	0	2	1	-2	2
14	Werder Bremen	3	0	1	2	-2	1
15	Mainz	2	0	1	1	-3	1
16	Leverkusen	3	0	0	3	-5	0
17	Augsburg	3	0	0	3	-7	0
18	Bochum	3	0	0	3	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Freiburg	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Mainz	4	3	0	1	+0	9
3	Bayern Munich	3	2	1	0	+12	7
4	Union Berlin	3	2	1	0	+6	7
5	Werder Bremen	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Augsburg	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Dortmund	3	2	0	1	+0	6
8	FC Koln	3	1	2	0	+2	5
9	Leverkusen	3	1	1	1	+2	4
10	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Stuttgart	3	0	3	0	+0	3
12	Hoffenheim	3	1	0	2	+0	3
13	M'gladbach	3	0	3	0	+0	3
14	Hertha	3	1	0	2	-1	3
15	Wolfsburg	3	1	0	2	-3	3
16	Schalke 04	3	0	2	1	-2	2
17	RB Leipzig	3	0	1	2	-5	1
18	Bochum	3	0	0	3	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.