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Premier League
Referee: C Kavanagh
1–2
Full-time
Chelsea
S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Crystal Palace Chelsea
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,5
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,7
2,5
Scored
1,5
1,0
Conceded
1,2
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,5
This season — Premier League · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
33%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,7
2,8
Scored
1,2
1,3
Conceded
1,5
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

36% Possession 64%
7 Shots 13
3 Shots on target 3
0 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 2
1 Offside 0
11 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Crystal Palace 16. · Chelsea 7.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Arsenal 8 7 0 1 +12 21
2 Man City 7 5 2 0 +17 17
3 Tottenham 8 5 2 1 +9 17
4 Brighton 6 4 1 1 +6 13
5 Man United 6 4 0 2 +0 12
6 Fulham 7 3 2 2 +1 11
7 Chelsea 6 3 1 2 -1 10
8 Liverpool 6 2 3 1 +9 9
9 Brentford 7 2 3 2 +3 9
10 Newcastle 7 1 5 1 +1 8
11 Leeds 6 2 2 2 +0 8
12 Bournemouth 7 2 2 3 -13 8
13 Everton 7 1 4 2 -1 7
14 Southampton 7 2 1 4 -4 7
15 Aston Villa 7 2 1 4 -4 7
16 Crystal Palace 6 1 3 2 -2 6
17 Wolves 7 1 3 3 -4 6
18 West Ham 7 1 1 5 -6 4
19 Nott'm Forest 7 1 1 5 -11 4
20 Leicester 7 0 1 6 -12 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Crystal Palace Chelsea
1–0 O. Édouard
J. Ayew
7′
Odsonne Édouard 🟨
22′
32′
🟨 Thiago Silva
34′
ℹ️ Thiago Silva
VAR: Card reviewed
38′
P. Aubameyang 1–1
Thiago Silva
J. Tomkins 🔁
↦ N. Clyne
43′
Half-time 1–1
52′
🟨 Mason Mount
56′
🔁 R. Loftus-Cheek
↦ Jorginho
J. Schlupp 🔁
↦ E. Eze
74′
75′
🔁 A. Broja
↦ P. Aubameyang
76′
🔁 C. Gallagher
↦ K. Havertz
J. Mateta 🔁
↦ O. Édouard
84′
W. Hughes 🔁
↦ C. Doucouré
84′
84′
🔁 C. Pulišić
↦ M. Mount
88′
🟨 Mateo Kovačić
90′
C. Gallagher 1–2
C. Pulišić
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Crystal Palace

4-3-3
13 Guaita G
17 N. Clyne D
2 J. Ward D
6 M. Guéhi D
3 T. Mitchell D
7 M. Olise M
28 C. Doucouré M
10 E. Eze M
9 J. Ayew F
22 O. Édouard F
11 W. Zaha F
Bench (9)
5 J. Tomkins
15 J. Schlupp
14 J. Mateta
19 W. Hughes
21 S. Johnstone
23 M. Ebiowei
45 J. Gordon
44 J. Riedewald
4 L. Milivojević

Coach: P. Vieira

Chelsea

4-2-2-2
1 Kepa G
24 R. James D
33 W. Fofana D
6 Thiago Silva D
21 B. Chilwell D
8 M. Kovačić M
5 Jorginho M
29 K. Havertz M
19 M. Mount M
17 R. Sterling F
9 P. Aubameyang F
Bench (9)
12 R. Loftus-Cheek
18 A. Broja
23 C. Gallagher
10 C. Pulišić
28 César Azpilicueta
26 K. Koulibaly
14 T. Chalobah
22 H. Ziyech
13 M. Bettinelli

Coach: G. Potter

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
4,29
U
3,57
B ✓
1,90
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,04
U2,5
1,79
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

C Kavanagh · 171 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
21,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.