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Bundesliga
Referee: M Petersen
Freiburg
T U U T T
1–3
Full-time
Mainz
T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Mainz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 0%
0%
0%
Points per game
0,5
0,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,2
3,8
Scored
0,8
1,0
Conceded
2,3
2,8
Goal diff per game
-1,5
-1,8
This season — Bundesliga · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 7%
14%
0%
Points per game
0,9
0,1
Over 2.5 Ø 72%
57%
86%
Both score Ø 71%
71%
71%
Average goals
3,4
3,9
Scored
1,1
1,0
Conceded
2,3
2,9
Goal diff per game
-1,1
-1,9
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

71% Possession 29%
19 Shots 22
6 Shots on target 8
6 Blocked shots 2
5 Goalkeeper saves 5
9 Corners 4
1 Offside 1
6 Free kicks against 12
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Freiburg 14. · Mainz 18.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 8 6 1 1 +16 19
2 Dortmund 8 6 0 2 +13 18
3 Leverkusen 8 5 3 0 +7 18
4 RB Leipzig 8 5 2 1 +11 17
5 Wolfsburg 8 3 5 0 +4 14
6 Union Berlin 7 3 3 1 +9 12
7 M'gladbach 8 3 3 2 +0 12
8 Stuttgart 8 2 5 1 +4 11
9 Werder Bremen 8 2 5 1 +0 11
10 Augsburg 8 3 2 3 -1 11
11 Ein Frankfurt 8 2 5 1 -2 11
12 Hoffenheim 8 2 2 4 -1 8
13 Hertha 8 2 1 5 -3 7
14 Freiburg 7 1 3 3 -8 6
15 Bielefeld 8 1 1 6 -12 4
16 FC Koln 7 0 3 4 -5 3
17 Schalke 04 8 0 3 5 -19 3
18 Mainz 7 0 1 6 -13 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Freiburg Mainz
2′
J. Mateta 0–1
L. Barreiro
34′
J. Mateta 0–2
40′
J. Mateta 0–3
J. Boëtius
Half-time 0–3
N. Höfler 🔁
↦ L. Tempelmann
46′
1–3 N. Petersen
63′
66′
🟨 Moussa Niakhaté
70′
🔁 K. Onisiwo
↦ R. Quaison
70′
🔁 P. Malong
↦ E. Fernandes
80′
🔁 Ji Dong-Won
↦ J. Mateta
E. Demirović 🔁
↦ L. Höler
84′
G. Til 🔁
↦ B. Santamaría
88′
92′
🔁 L. Kilian
↦ L. Barreiro
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Freiburg

4-4-2
21 F. Müller G
23 D. Heintz D
30 C. Günter D
3 P. Lienhart D
7 J. Schmid D
32 V. Grifo M
8 B. Santamaría M
22 R. Sallai M
34 L. Tempelmann M
18 N. Petersen F
9 L. Höler F
Bench (9)
27 N. Höfler
11 E. Demirović
14 G. Til
24 G. Itter
36 Y. Keitel
5 M. Gulde
31 K. Schlotterbeck
1 B. Uphoff
29 Jeong Woo-Yeong

Coach: C. Streich

Mainz

3-5-2
27 R. Zentner G
18 D. Brosinski M
42 A. Hack D
19 M. Niakhate D
4 J. St. Juste D
5 J. Boëtius F
8 L. Öztunali M
20 E. Fernandes M
35 L. Barreiro M
7 R. Quaison M
9 J. Mateta F
Bench (9)
21 K. Onisiwo
14 P. Malong
11 Ji Dong-Won
15 L. Kilian
37 F. Dahmen
3 Aarón Martín
22 I. Abass
25 N. Tauer
17 K. Stöger

Coach: J. Lichte

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,09
U
3,58
B ✓
3,45
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,69
U2,5
2,18
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Petersen · 103 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.