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Bundesliga

Referee: D Schlager

Hoffenheim

T S S S T

4–1

Full-time

Mainz

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,5

This season — Bundesliga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 60%

60%

Points per game

1,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

60%

Both score Ø 40%

40%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

1,6

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

65% Possession 35%

21 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Hoffenheim 7. · Mainz 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Freiburg	5	4	0	1	+5	12
2	Dortmund	5	4	0	1	+4	12
3	Bayern Munich	5	3	2	0	+14	11
4	Union Berlin	5	3	2	0	+8	11
5	Mainz	5	3	1	1	+0	10
6	FC Koln	5	2	3	0	+4	9
7	Hoffenheim	5	3	0	2	+2	9
8	M'gladbach	5	2	2	1	+2	8
9	Werder Bremen	6	2	2	2	+1	8
10	Ein Frankfurt	5	2	2	1	+0	8
11	Augsburg	6	2	0	4	-6	6
12	RB Leipzig	5	1	2	2	-3	5
13	Stuttgart	5	0	4	1	-1	4
14	Hertha	5	1	1	3	-2	4
15	Leverkusen	5	1	0	4	-3	3
16	Schalke 04	5	0	3	2	-7	3
17	Wolfsburg	5	0	2	3	-6	2
18	Bochum	5	0	0	5	-12	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Union Berlin	3	2	1	0	+3	7
2	M'gladbach	3	2	0	1	+2	6
3	Hoffenheim	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Dortmund	3	2	0	1	+1	6
5	RB Leipzig	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Bayern Munich	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	FC Koln	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Ein Frankfurt	3	1	1	1	-1	4
9	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Stuttgart	3	0	2	1	-1	2
11	Wolfsburg	3	0	2	1	-2	2
12	Hertha	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Werder Bremen	3	0	1	2	-2	1
14	Mainz	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	Schalke 04	2	0	1	1	-5	1
16	Leverkusen	3	0	0	3	-5	0
17	Augsburg	3	0	0	3	-7	0
18	Bochum	3	0	0	3	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Freiburg	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Mainz	3	3	0	0	+3	9
3	Bayern Munich	3	2	1	0	+12	7
4	Werder Bremen	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Augsburg	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	FC Koln	3	1	2	0	+2	5
8	Union Berlin	2	1	1	0	+5	4
9	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Leverkusen	2	1	0	1	+2	3
11	Hoffenheim	3	1	0	2	+0	3
12	Hertha	3	1	0	2	-1	3
13	M'gladbach	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Stuttgart	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Schalke 04	3	0	2	1	-2	2
16	RB Leipzig	3	0	1	2	-5	1
17	Bochum	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Wolfsburg	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.