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Bundesliga

Referee: B Cortus

Mainz

S U S T U

1–0

Full-time

Freiburg

S U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,8

2,2

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,8

This season — Bundesliga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 28%

17%

38%

Points per game

0,8

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

54%

63%

Average goals

2,8

3,1

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

48% Possession 52%

10 Shots 13

7 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

0 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

25 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 17. · Freiburg 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	24	17	4	3	+37	55
2	RB Leipzig	24	16	5	3	+26	53
3	Wolfsburg	24	12	9	3	+17	45
4	Ein Frankfurt	24	11	10	3	+14	43
5	Leverkusen	24	11	7	6	+16	40
6	Dortmund	24	12	3	9	+15	39
7	Union Berlin	24	8	11	5	+10	35
8	Freiburg	24	9	7	8	-1	34
9	Stuttgart	24	8	9	7	+8	33
10	M'gladbach	25	8	9	8	+1	33
11	Hoffenheim	24	8	6	10	-2	30
12	Werder Bremen	24	7	9	8	-4	30
13	Augsburg	25	8	5	12	-11	29
14	FC Koln	24	5	7	12	-20	22
15	Hertha	24	5	6	13	-15	21
16	Bielefeld	24	5	4	15	-25	19
17	Mainz	24	4	6	14	-21	18
18	Schalke 04	24	1	7	16	-45	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	12	10	1	1	+15	31
2	Bayern Munich	12	9	3	0	+28	30
3	Wolfsburg	11	7	4	0	+11	25
4	Ein Frankfurt	12	6	6	0	+9	24
5	Dortmund	11	6	2	3	+11	20
6	Union Berlin	12	4	7	1	+9	19
7	Leverkusen	12	5	4	3	+7	19
8	Freiburg	13	5	4	4	+4	19
9	M'gladbach	13	5	4	4	+4	19
10	Hoffenheim	12	5	2	5	+5	17
11	Augsburg	13	4	3	6	-6	15
12	Werder Bremen	11	3	4	4	-3	13
13	Bielefeld	13	4	1	8	-11	13
14	Stuttgart	11	2	6	3	+2	12
15	Hertha	12	3	2	7	-11	11
16	Mainz	12	2	2	8	-10	8
17	FC Koln	12	1	4	7	-9	7
18	Schalke 04	13	1	3	9	-18	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	8	1	3	+9	25
2	RB Leipzig	12	6	4	2	+11	22
3	Leverkusen	12	6	3	3	+9	21
4	Stuttgart	13	6	3	4	+6	21
5	Wolfsburg	13	5	5	3	+6	20
6	Ein Frankfurt	12	5	4	3	+5	19
7	Dortmund	13	6	1	6	+4	19
8	Werder Bremen	13	4	5	4	-1	17
9	Union Berlin	12	4	4	4	+1	16
10	Freiburg	11	4	3	4	-5	15
11	FC Koln	12	4	3	5	-11	15
12	M'gladbach	12	3	5	4	-3	14
13	Augsburg	12	4	2	6	-5	14
14	Hoffenheim	12	3	4	5	-7	13
15	Hertha	12	2	4	6	-4	10
16	Mainz	12	2	4	6	-11	10
17	Bielefeld	11	1	3	7	-14	6
18	Schalke 04	11	0	4	7	-27	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.