The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Oliveira Hospital
Juventude Évora
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Vianense
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 6 |
| 2 |
Atlético CP
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 6 |
| 3 |
Fafe
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 6 |
| 4 |
Vitória de Sernache
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| 5 |
CF Os Belenenses
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 6 |
Salgueiros
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 7 |
Mafra
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 |
Alcochetense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 3 |
| 9 |
Portel
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 3 |
| 10 |
O Elvas
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +7 | 3 |
| 11 |
Guarda
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 3 |
| 12 |
UD da Serra
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 13 |
Mação
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 14 |
Tondela
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 15 |
Sacavenense
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 3 |
| 16 |
Bragança
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 17 |
Os Marialvas
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 18 |
Leixoes
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 19 |
Varzim
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 20 |
Oliveirense
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 21 |
Madalena
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 22 |
Recreativa de Lamelas
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 23 |
Academica
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 24 |
Os Limianos
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 25 |
Juventude Évora
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 26 |
Sanjoanense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 27 |
Aljustrelense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 28 |
CF Benfica
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 29 |
Sintrense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 30 |
Fátima
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 31 |
Paredes
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 32 |
Merelinense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 33 |
FC Serpa
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 34 |
União de Leiria
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 35 |
Felgueiras 1932
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 36 |
Penafiel
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 37 |
Alcains
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 38 |
Maria da Fonte
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 39 |
Fazendense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 40 |
AD Marco 09
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 41 |
Louletano
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 42 |
Oliveira Hospital
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 43 |
Portimonense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 44 |
Farense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 45 |
Celoricense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 46 |
Santo Antonio
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +0 | 3 |
| 47 |
Naval 1893
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +0 | 3 |
| 48 |
Real
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 49 |
Cinfães
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 50 |
União Lamas
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 51 |
Rebordosa
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 52 |
Alpendorada
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 53 |
Tirsense
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 54 |
Machico
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 55 |
Camacha
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 56 |
Montalegre
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 57 |
Ponte da Barca
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 58 |
SC Covilha
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 59 |
Mortágua
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 60 |
Florgrade
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 61 |
São João Ver
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 62 |
Maia Lidador
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 63 |
Vila Meã
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 64 |
Beira-Mar
|
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 65 |
Atlético Malveira
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 66 |
Sousense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 67 |
Lusitano Évora 1911
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 68 |
Pacos Ferreira
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 69 |
Feirense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 70 |
Sertanense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 71 |
Uniao Nogueirense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 72 |
Mocarriense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 73 |
Régua
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 74 |
1º Dezembro
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 75 |
Castrense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 76 |
Sourense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 77 |
Castro Daire
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 78 |
Espinho
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 79 |
Pevidem
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 80 |
Caldas
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 81 |
Benfica Castelo Branco
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 82 |
Estrela Calheta
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 83 |
AD Nogueirense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 84 |
Ermesinde
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 85 |
Atlético Arcos
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 86 |
O Grandolense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 87 |
SC Barreiro
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 88 |
Lagoa
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 89 |
Correlhã
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 90 |
União Montemor
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 91 |
Pacos de Brandao
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 92 |
Ferreiras
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 93 |
Viana Alentejo
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 94 |
Nazarenos
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 95 |
Portalegrense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 96 |
Trofense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 97 |
Imortal Albufeira
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 98 |
Lajense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 99 |
Rebordelo
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 100 |
Olímpico do Montijo
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 101 |
Penalva Castelo
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 102 |
AD Fornos Algodres
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 103 |
Uniao de Pombal
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 104 |
Angrense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 105 |
Gavionenses
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 106 |
Académico do Fundão
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
| 107 |
Minas de Argozelo
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | 0 |
| 108 |
Fayal
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | 0 |
| 109 |
Messejanense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | 0 |
| 110 |
São Roque (Açores)
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9 | 0 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Oliveira Hospital
Sourense
Silves
Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital
São João Ver
Oliveira Hospital
Cinfães
Oliveira Hospital
Mafra
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.