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Ligue 2
Referee: M Lesage
St Etienne
T U U T U
5–0
Full-time
Bastia
T S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

St Etienne Bastia
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,7
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 58%
83%
33%
Average goals
3,5
3,0
Scored
1,2
1,7
Conceded
2,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
-1,2
+0,3
This season — Ligue 2 · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 20%
0%
40%
Points per game
0,6
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 70%
80%
60%
Both score Ø 60%
80%
40%
Average goals
3,8
3,2
Scored
1,2
1,6
Conceded
2,6
1,6
Goal diff per game
-1,4
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–0

56% Possession 44%
9 Shots 7
6 Shots on target 1
1 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 1
8 Corners 6
3 Offside 4
15 Free kicks against 10
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match St Etienne 18. · Bastia 11.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Caen 5 3 2 0 +5 11
2 Dijon 5 3 2 0 +3 11
3 Guingamp 5 3 1 1 +3 10
4 Amiens 5 3 1 1 +1 10
5 Bordeaux 5 2 2 1 +3 8
6 Sochaux 5 2 1 2 +4 7
7 Metz 5 2 1 2 +3 7
8 Laval 5 2 1 2 +1 7
9 Nimes 5 2 1 2 +0 7
10 Le Havre 5 1 3 1 +5 6
11 Bastia 5 2 0 3 +0 6
12 Quevilly Rouen 5 1 3 1 +0 6
13 Paris FC 5 1 3 1 +0 6
14 Valenciennes 5 1 3 1 -1 6
15 Grenoble 5 1 3 1 -2 6
16 Niort 5 2 0 3 -5 6
17 Rodez 5 1 2 2 -2 5
18 St Etienne 5 0 3 2 -7 3
19 Annecy 5 0 2 3 -3 2
20 Pau FC 5 0 2 3 -8 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

St Etienne Bastia
1–0 Y. Maçon
J. Krasso
8′
2–0 J. Krasso
D. Chambost
19′
3–0 J. Krasso
Sergi Palencia
33′
35′
🟨 Lloyd Palun
4–0 J. Krasso
36′
Half-time 4–0
Abdoulaye Bakayoko 🟨
57′
5–0 J. Krasso
M. Cafaro
61′
62′
🔁 A. Talal
↦ K. Schur
L. Pintor 🔁
↦ D. Chambost
66′
66′
🔁 A. Robic
↦ S. Salles-Lamonge
66′
🔁 A. Roncaglia
↦ T. Ducrocq
66′
🔁 B. Santelli
↦ M. Alfarela
A. Gauthier 🔁
↦ M. Cafaro
81′
A. Aiki 🔁
↦ J. Krasso
81′
D. Bile 🔁
↦ Sergi Palencia
81′
Darnell Bile 🟨
83′
85′
🔁 Dylan Tavares
↦ K. Van Den Kerkhof
87′
🟨 Joris Sainati
M. Nadé 🔁
↦ A. Briançon
89′
Full-time 5–0

Line-ups

St Etienne

3-4-3
1 M. Dreyer G
36 A. Bakayoko D
5 J. Giraudon D
23 A. Briançon D
13 Sergi Palencia M
6 B. Bouchouari M
37 L. Mouton M
27 Y. Maçon M
18 M. Cafaro F
17 J. Krasso F
14 D. Chambost F
Bench (7)
15 L. Pintor
34 A. Gauthier
39 A. Aiki
49 D. Bile
3 M. Nadé
4 S. Sow
50 N. Raveyre

Coach: L. Batlles

Bastia

3-5-2
30 J. Placide G
28 J. Sainati D
6 D. Guidi D
25 A. Ndiaye D
23 L. Palun M
13 T. Ducrocq M
7 C. Vincent M
10 S. Salles-Lamonge M
8 K. Schur M
22 K. Van Den Kerkhof F
27 M. Alfarela F
Bench (6)
14 A. Talal
86 A. Robic
4 A. Roncaglia
9 B. Santelli
42 Dylan Tavares
1 Z. Boucher

Coach: R. Brouard

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,31
U
3,12
B
3,17
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,23
U2,5
1,62
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

M Lesage · 143 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.