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Primeira Liga

Referee: Vitor Ferreira

Estrela

U U U U S

2–2

Full-time

Famalicao

S U T T U

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estrela Famalicao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,7

1,2

Scored

1,8

0,5

Conceded

1,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 3/4 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

100%

25%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

4,3

1,5

Scored

2,3

0,5

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

41% Possession 59%

14 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 5

11 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estrela 8. · Famalicao 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	5	5	0	0	+10	+5.4	15
2	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+7	+4.3	10
3	Arouca	4	3	0	1	+4	-1.5	9
4	Santa Clara	4	2	2	0	+2	+2.5	8
5	Benfica	3	2	1	0	+8	+6.7	7
6	Gil Vicente	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.5	7
7	Maritimo	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.1	7
8	Estrela	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.8	5
9	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.7	4
10	Nacional	4	1	1	2	+0	-3.3	4
11	Moreirense	4	1	1	2	-4	-3.3	4
12	Guimaraes	4	1	0	3	-2	+4.1	3
13	Rio Ave	4	1	0	3	-5	-4.5	3
14	Famalicao	4	0	2	2	-2	-0.9	2
15	Alverca	4	0	2	2	-4	-3.1	2
16	Academico Viseu	4	0	2	2	-4	-3.2	2
17	Estoril	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.8	1
18	Casa Pia	4	0	0	4	-11	-3.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.4	9
2	Arouca	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.7	6
3	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.6	6
4	Gil Vicente	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.5	6
5	Benfica	2	1	1	0	+1	+4.0	4
6	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
7	Maritimo	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.2	4
8	Nacional	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
9	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
10	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+0	+4.6	3
11	Alverca	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.4	2
12	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
13	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.5	1
14	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.0	1
15	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.0	1
16	Academico Viseu	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.4	0
17	Rio Ave	2	0	0	2	-6	-2.5	0
18	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-8	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.0	6
2	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+4	+2.7	4
3	Estrela	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
4	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.7	4
5	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+7	+2.7	3
6	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.9	3
7	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.0	3
8	Arouca	2	1	0	1	-1	-4.2	3
9	Moreirense	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.2	3
10	Academico Viseu	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.8	2
11	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
12	Gil Vicente	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
13	Nacional	2	0	1	1	-1	-3.2	1
14	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.1	1
15	Guimaraes	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.5	0
16	Estoril	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.8	0
17	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.7	0
18	Alverca	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.