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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hélder Carvalho

Famalicao

S S T U U

0–0

Full-time

Nacional

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Famalicao Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,8

2,7

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

0,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,8

2,7

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

0,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,94 xG 0,62

68% Possession 32%

16 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 4

8 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 22

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Famalicao 6. · Nacional 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	7	0	0	+23	+16.8	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+12	+8.9	16
3	Porto	6	5	0	1	+9	+9.1	15
4	Guimaraes	7	4	1	2	+1	+1.9	13
5	Santa Clara	6	4	0	2	+2	+3.2	12
6	Famalicao	6	3	2	1	+5	+1.3	11
7	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+4	+0.2	11
8	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	-2	+2.6	8
9	Casa Pia	7	2	2	3	-3	-0.3	8
10	Rio Ave	6	2	1	3	-3	-4.4	7
11	AVS	6	2	1	3	-4	-4.3	7
12	Gil Vicente	7	1	4	2	-5	-3.5	7
13	Arouca	6	2	0	4	-5	-6.2	6
14	Estoril	7	1	3	3	-6	-9.3	6
15	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-4	-0.0	5
16	Estrela	7	1	2	4	-5	-6.4	5
17	Nacional	6	1	1	4	-8	-0.7	4
18	Farense	6	0	0	6	-11	-9.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+11	+6.8	12
2	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+7	+6.5	9
3	Porto	3	3	0	0	+6	+9.8	9
4	Famalicao	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.8	7
5	Rio Ave	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.2	7
6	AVS	3	2	1	0	+2	-0.7	7
7	Santa Clara	3	2	0	1	+0	+2.2	6
8	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	-1	+1.4	6
9	Gil Vicente	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.6	5
10	Moreirense	3	1	2	0	+2	+0.7	5
11	Sp Braga	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.2	4
12	Casa Pia	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.4	4
13	Estrela	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.9	4
14	Estoril	4	1	1	2	-5	-6.6	4
15	Arouca	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.6	3
16	Nacional	3	1	0	2	-6	-1.7	3
17	Boavista	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.7	1
18	Farense	3	0	0	3	-7	-3.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+16	+10.3	12
2	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.5	7
3	Guimaraes	4	2	1	1	+2	+0.5	7
4	Porto	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.8	6
5	Santa Clara	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.0	6
6	Famalicao	3	1	1	1	+2	-0.4	4
7	Benfica	3	1	1	1	+1	+2.1	4
8	Boavista	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.7	4
9	Casa Pia	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.7	4
10	Arouca	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.6	3
11	Moreirense	4	1	0	3	-4	+1.9	3
12	Estoril	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.7	2
13	Gil Vicente	4	0	2	2	-7	-5.0	2
14	Estrela	3	0	1	2	-2	-3.5	1
15	Nacional	3	0	1	2	-2	+1.0	1
16	Farense	3	0	0	3	-4	-5.2	0
17	Rio Ave	3	0	0	3	-5	-5.6	0
18	AVS	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.