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Eredivisie
Referee: P van Boekel
Ajax
T T S S S
2–1
Full-time
Vitesse
T T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Vitesse
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 34%
17%
50%
Average goals
2,3
3,3
Scored
1,7
2,0
Conceded
0,7
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,7
This season — Eredivisie · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
50%
0%
Both score Ø 0%
0%
0%
Average goals
2,0
1,5
Scored
2,0
1,5
Conceded
0,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
+2,0
+1,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

47% Possession 53%
18 Shots 24
4 Shots on target 5
4 Blocked shots 7
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
7 Corners 4
2 Offside 1
13 Free kicks against 15
3 Yellow cards 4
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ajax 3. · Vitesse 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Heerenveen 3 3 0 0 +5 9
2 Twente 3 2 1 0 +4 7
3 Ajax 2 2 0 0 +4 6
4 PSV Eindhoven 2 2 0 0 +3 6
5 Vitesse 2 2 0 0 +3 6
6 Zwolle 3 1 1 1 +2 4
7 Feyenoord 2 1 1 0 +2 4
8 VVV Venlo 3 1 1 1 +1 4
9 Willem II 2 1 0 1 +2 3
10 Heracles 2 1 0 1 -2 3
11 Groningen 3 1 0 2 -3 3
12 AZ Alkmaar 2 0 2 0 +0 2
13 Utrecht 1 0 1 0 +0 1
14 For Sittard 3 0 1 2 -4 1
15 FC Emmen 2 0 0 2 -3 0
16 Den Haag 2 0 0 2 -3 0
17 Waalwijk 2 0 0 2 -4 0
18 Sparta Rotterdam 3 0 0 3 -7 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ajax Vitesse
Perr Schuurs 🟨
10′
1–0 Q. Promes
N. Mazraoui
21′
J. Timber 🔁
↦ P. Schuurs
31′
35′
🟨 Thomas Bruns
Edson Álvarez 🟥
44′
Daley Blind 🟨
45′
45′
🟨 Tomáš Hájek
Half-time 1–0
J. Ekkelenkamp 🔁
↦ Z. Labyad
46′
56′
R. Bazoer 1–1
60′
🔁 A. Broja
↦ O. Darfalou
61′
🔁 P. Vroegh
↦ T. Bruns
2–1 Antony
M. Kudus
70′
81′
🟨 Maximilian Wittek
81′
🔁 M. Manhoef
↦ M. Wittek
81′
🔁 T. Buitink
↦ E. Dasa
82′
🟨 Oussama Tannane
S. Dest 🔁
↦ N. Mazraoui
84′
Nicolás Tagliafico 🟨
89′
L. Traoré 🔁
↦ Q. Promes
91′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Ajax

4-3-3
24 A. Onana G
17 D. Blind D
31 N. Tagliafico D
12 N. Mazraoui D
3 P. Schuurs D
4 E. Álvarez M
19 Z. Labyad F
20 M. Kudus M
10 D. Tadić F
11 Q. Promes M
39 Antony F
Bench (11)
2 J. Timber
18 J. Ekkelenkamp
28 S. Dest
23 L. Traoré
25 K. Taylor
1 M. Stekelenburg
15 D. Rensch
7 David Neres
33 D. Kotarski
9 K. Huntelaar
21 L. Martínez

Coach: E. ten Hag

Vitesse

3-5-2
22 R. Pasveer G
18 T. Hájek D
2 E. Dasa M
32 M. Wittek M
3 D. Doekhi D
20 T. Bruns M
21 M. Bero M
10 R. Bazoer D
14 O. Tannane M
9 O. Darfalou F
7 L. Openda F
Bench (9)
11 A. Broja
36 P. Vroegh
42 M. Manhoef
29 T. Buitink
24 J. Houwen
8 S. Tronstad
39 E. Cornelisse
43 J. Froeling
27 I. Touré

Coach: T. Letsch

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,28
U
6,03
B
8,79
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,32
U2,5
3,34
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

P van Boekel · 82 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
19,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.