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Serie A
Referee: G Calvarese
Inter
U U S S S
4–3
Full-time
Fiorentina
U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Fiorentina
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,3
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 25%
17%
33%
Average goals
2,5
2,3
Scored
2,2
1,8
Conceded
0,3
0,5
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+1,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

66% Possession 34%
12 Shots 8
6 Shots on target 4
6 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
5 Corners 1
2 Offside 0
15 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Genoa 1 1 0 0 +3 3
2 Juventus 1 1 0 0 +3 3
3 Verona 1 1 0 0 +3 3
4 Atalanta 1 1 0 0 +2 3
5 Napoli 1 1 0 0 +2 3
6 Milan 1 1 0 0 +2 3
7 Lazio 1 1 0 0 +2 3
8 Benevento 1 1 0 0 +1 3
9 Fiorentina 1 1 0 0 +1 3
10 Sassuolo 1 0 1 0 +0 1
11 Cagliari 2 0 1 1 -2 1
12 Parma 1 0 0 1 -2 0
13 Bologna 1 0 0 1 -2 0
14 Torino 2 0 0 2 -3 0
15 Crotone 1 0 0 1 -3 0
16 Roma 1 0 0 1 -3 0
17 Sampdoria 2 0 0 2 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

22. Jul -20 Inter – Fiorentina 0–0 15. Dec -19 Fiorentina – Inter 1–1 24. Feb -19 Fiorentina – Inter 3–3 25. Sep -18 Inter – Fiorentina 2–1 5. Jan -18 Fiorentina – Inter 1–1

Match report

Inter Fiorentina
3′
⚽ C. Kouamé 0–1
G. Bonaventura
Nicolò Barella 🟨
6′
Lautaro Martínez ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
19′
32′
🟨 Federico Ceccherini
Half-time 1–1
1–1 L. Martínez ⚽
N. Barella
47′
1–2 F. Ceccherini ⚽
own goal
52′
57′
⚽ G. Castrovilli 1–3
F. Ribéry
61′
🔁 Borja Valero
↦ G. Bonaventura
61′
🔁 D. Vlahović
↦ C. Kouamé
63′
⚽ F. Chiesa 1–4
F. Ribéry
A. Hakimi 🔁
↦ A. Young
64′
S. Sensi 🔁
↦ C. Eriksen
64′
68′
🔁 Pol Lirola
↦ F. Chiesa
A. Vidal 🔁
↦ M. Brozović
74′
R. Nainggolan 🔁
↦ N. Barella
75′
A. Sánchez 🔁
↦ I. Perišić
78′
83′
🔁 P. Cutrone
↦ F. Ribéry
2–4 R. Lukaku ⚽
A. Hakimi
87′
3–4 D. D'Ambrosio ⚽
89′
Full-time 3–4

Line-ups

Inter

3-4-1-2
1 S. Handanovič G
15 A. Young M
11 A. Kolarov D
33 D. D'Ambrosio D
95 A. Bastoni D
14 I. Perišić M
24 C. Eriksen F
77 M. Brozović M
23 N. Barella M
9 R. Lukaku F
10 L. Martínez F
Bench (12)
2 A. Hakimi
12 S. Sensi
22 A. Vidal
44 R. Nainggolan
7 A. Sánchez
97 I. Radu
31 L. Pirola
5 R. Gagliardini
37 M. Škriniar
13 A. Ranocchia
99 A. Pinamonti
29 Dalbert Henrique

Coach: A. Conte

Fiorentina

3-5-2
69 B. Drągowski G
22 M. Cáceres D
17 F. Ceccherini D
3 C. Biraghi M
4 N. Milenković D
7 F. Ribéry F
5 G. Bonaventura M
34 S. Amrabat M
10 G. Castrovilli M
11 C. Kouamé F
25 F. Chiesa M
Bench (12)
6 Borja Valero
9 D. Vlahović
21 Pol Lirola
63 P. Cutrone
1 P. Terracciano
18 R. Saponara
8 A. Duncan
98 Igor
28 Tòfol Montiel
32 C. Dalle Mura
23 L. Venuti
20 G. Pezzella

Coach: G. Iachini

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,55
🔒
U
4,27
🔒
B
5,92
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,66
🔒
U2,5
2,22
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

G Calvarese · 33 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
26,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.