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La Liga

Referee: Jesus Gil Manzano

Real Madrid

S U S S T

2–1

Full-time

Malaga

U U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Malaga

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,5

4,0

Scored

2,5

1,5

Conceded

1,0

2,5

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-1,0

This season — La Liga · 17/18 matches

Win Ø 50%

71%

28%

Points per game

2,4

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

76%

56%

Both score Ø 69%

71%

67%

Average goals

3,6

3,2

Scored

2,7

1,4

Conceded

0,9

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

57% Possession 43%

14 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 4

9 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 20

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 1. · Malaga 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	17	12	4	1	+30	40
2	Sevilla	18	12	3	3	+16	39
3	Barcelona	18	11	5	2	+30	38
4	Ath Madrid	18	10	4	4	+18	34
5	Sociedad	18	10	2	6	+5	32
6	Villarreal	18	8	7	3	+14	31
7	Ath Bilbao	18	8	4	6	+3	28
8	Celta	18	8	3	7	-3	27
9	Eibar	18	7	5	6	+1	26
10	Espanol	19	6	8	5	-1	26
11	Las Palmas	19	6	7	6	-2	25
12	Alaves	18	5	7	6	-3	22
13	Malaga	18	5	6	7	-5	21
14	Betis	18	6	3	9	-10	21
15	La Coruna	19	4	7	8	-5	19
16	Leganes	18	4	5	9	-16	17
17	Valencia	17	4	4	9	-7	16
18	Sp Gijon	18	3	3	12	-18	12
19	Granada	19	1	7	11	-26	10
20	Osasuna	18	1	6	11	-21	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sevilla	9	8	0	1	+10	24
2	Real Madrid	9	7	2	0	+15	23
3	Celta	10	7	0	3	+3	21
4	Ath Madrid	9	6	2	1	+13	20
5	Villarreal	9	6	2	1	+12	20
6	Las Palmas	10	5	5	0	+9	20
7	Ath Bilbao	9	6	2	1	+7	20
8	Barcelona	9	5	3	1	+16	18
9	Malaga	9	5	2	2	+4	17
10	Eibar	9	5	2	2	+4	17
11	Sociedad	9	5	2	2	+3	17
12	Betis	9	4	3	2	+0	15
13	La Coruna	9	4	2	3	+5	14
14	Espanol	10	3	5	2	+2	14
15	Alaves	8	2	4	2	-1	10
16	Sp Gijon	9	3	1	5	-7	10
17	Valencia	8	2	2	4	-4	8
18	Granada	9	1	4	4	-4	7
19	Leganes	9	1	4	4	-6	7
20	Osasuna	9	0	3	6	-11	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	9	6	2	1	+14	20
2	Real Madrid	8	5	2	1	+15	17
3	Sevilla	9	4	3	2	+6	15
4	Sociedad	9	5	0	4	+2	15
5	Ath Madrid	9	4	2	3	+5	14
6	Alaves	10	3	3	4	-2	12
7	Espanol	9	3	3	3	-3	12
8	Villarreal	9	2	5	2	+2	11
9	Leganes	9	3	1	5	-10	10
10	Eibar	9	2	3	4	-3	9
11	Valencia	9	2	2	5	-3	8
12	Ath Bilbao	9	2	2	5	-4	8
13	Celta	8	1	3	4	-6	6
14	Osasuna	9	1	3	5	-10	6
15	Betis	9	2	0	7	-10	6
16	La Coruna	10	0	5	5	-10	5
17	Las Palmas	9	1	2	6	-11	5
18	Malaga	9	0	4	5	-9	4
19	Granada	10	0	3	7	-22	3
20	Sp Gijon	9	0	2	7	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.