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La Liga

Referee: Jesus Gil Manzano

Real Madrid

S S T S U

3–2

Full-time

Malaga

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Malaga

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

0,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-1,0

This season — La Liga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 38%

58%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

67%

42%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,6

2,8

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

0,8

2,1

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

57% Possession 43%

16 Shots 9

9 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 0

10 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 3. · Malaga 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	12	11	1	0	+29	34
2	Valencia	12	9	3	0	+21	30
3	Real Madrid	12	7	3	2	+13	24
4	Ath Madrid	12	6	6	0	+10	24
5	Sevilla	12	7	1	4	+2	22
6	Villarreal	12	6	3	3	+7	21
7	Sociedad	12	5	3	4	+3	18
8	Celta	13	5	2	6	+5	17
9	Leganes	13	5	2	6	-3	17
10	Betis	12	5	2	5	-4	17
11	Getafe	12	4	4	4	+5	16
12	Girona	12	4	4	4	-3	16
13	Levante	12	3	6	3	-1	15
14	Eibar	13	4	2	7	-13	14
15	Espanol	12	3	4	5	-6	13
16	Ath Bilbao	12	3	3	6	-4	12
17	La Coruna	12	3	2	7	-8	11
18	Malaga	12	2	1	9	-16	7
19	Alaves	13	2	0	11	-15	6
20	Las Palmas	12	2	0	10	-22	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	6	6	0	0	+18	18
2	Valencia	6	5	1	0	+14	16
3	Sevilla	6	5	1	0	+8	16
4	Villarreal	5	4	1	0	+11	13
5	Betis	6	4	1	1	+5	13
6	Real Madrid	6	3	2	1	+7	11
7	Celta	7	3	2	2	+2	11
8	Espanol	6	3	1	2	+2	10
9	Getafe	6	3	0	3	+5	9
10	Ath Madrid	5	2	3	0	+3	9
11	Levante	7	2	3	2	+1	9
12	Sociedad	6	2	2	2	+2	8
13	Eibar	6	2	2	2	+1	8
14	Ath Bilbao	6	2	2	2	+0	8
15	Leganes	6	2	2	2	-2	8
16	Girona	7	2	2	3	-3	8
17	Malaga	6	2	1	3	-3	7
18	La Coruna	6	2	0	4	-5	6
19	Alaves	7	1	0	6	-9	3
20	Las Palmas	6	1	0	5	-12	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	6	5	1	0	+11	16
2	Ath Madrid	7	4	3	0	+7	15
3	Valencia	6	4	2	0	+7	14
4	Real Madrid	6	4	1	1	+6	13
5	Sociedad	6	3	1	2	+1	10
6	Leganes	7	3	0	4	-1	9
7	Girona	5	2	2	1	+0	8
8	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	-4	8
9	Getafe	6	1	4	1	+0	7
10	Celta	6	2	0	4	+3	6
11	Levante	5	1	3	1	-2	6
12	Sevilla	6	2	0	4	-6	6
13	Eibar	7	2	0	5	-14	6
14	La Coruna	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Ath Bilbao	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Betis	6	1	1	4	-9	4
17	Alaves	6	1	0	5	-6	3
18	Espanol	6	0	3	3	-8	3
19	Las Palmas	6	1	0	5	-10	3
20	Malaga	6	0	0	6	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.