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Taça de Portugal

Alcains

T S T

1–0

Full-time

Sertanense

S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alcains Sertanense

Last 6 — all competitions · 3/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Varzim	1	1	0	0	+4	3
2	Atlético CP	1	1	0	0	+4	3
3	Oliveirense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
4	Santo Antonio	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	Fátima	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Fafe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	União Lamas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Machico	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Camacha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Montalegre	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Ponte da Barca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Atlético Malveira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
19	Portalegrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
20	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
21	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
22	Penalva Castelo	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Varzim	1	1	0	0	+4	3
2	Oliveirense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
3	Fátima	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
6	Machico	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	Montalegre	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Atlético Malveira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
9	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
10	Portalegrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
11	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atlético CP	1	1	0	0	+4	3
2	Santo Antonio	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Fafe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	União Lamas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
6	Camacha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	Ponte da Barca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
9	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
10	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
11	Penalva Castelo	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.